Also Mr. Bltiman-
That signal that I described was far from perfect. If you had sold on July 11th (if you could even lay your hands on the shares) you would have had to endure two pretty scary days.
And regarding "Random Walk Down Wall Street"...yes I read the book and I even liked the book, but I disagree with it's conclusions.
No you still don't get it.
You can apply this simply MA crossover method and generate an expectancy over a large number of signals. Not all signals work, of course, but many do...that's the point.
re: my example it was literally the first chart I though of...no hocus pocus. You think I'd spend a lot of time just to make an indicator fit? You're nuts.
Large hedge transactions that use options are done OTC with an investment firm as a principal to the deal.
I have no way of saying whether that has happened but there is really no way we can know.
I take it back
because you can retroactively apply a TA method, and retroactively see the results, and make them fit,
you are a genius
lookit the genius everyone!
are you sure you're not "billbergeren" in disguise?
PS you didn't "predict" anything. My statement still stands. TA on this stock at this time doesn't mean crap as an indicator of when to buy or sell. If you think it does in the first place which is highly debatable. Look who Im telling this to. The original squiggly line worshipper. It's a random walk dude. Didn't you learn that in your finance classes?
TA "might" be worth a hill of beans.
"The case for the large short position moving the stock can be made. I discount it a little since the position has been there for so long. I think most of it is hedged by now"
What are they hedging with????
Let's assume the shorts bought all the calls and wrote all the puts:
Sep $5 - 228, 88
Sep $7.50 - 851, 427
Sep $10 - 1276, 181
Sep $12.50 - 405, 129
Total X 100 shares per contract = 364,500 shares
Shares short = 5,861,470
Heck, let's assume they bought every share since July 15th and covered and there was no churning:
Shares traded since July 15th (including today) - 1,179,400 + 152,700 = 1,332,100
So let's say shorts position is 4,529,370 shares and they hold all the options available to them 364,500 shares.
I'd say they need to hedge at least 4,164,870 more shares.
<<You implied that it depended, that TA might matter, in some cases. That is wrong, TA doesn't matter with BLTIE these days, with the short position. "They" are painting the picture and it will look any way they want it to look. ZZZZZZZZZZIp TA goes out the window. It doesn't matter what indicator you look to.>>
I have a very simple way of letting you know what I mean:
Let's use the simplest "TA" system there is: the the MA crossover method. Crude and simple. How about a 20 period MA and a 50 period MA.
Now open up a chart of, say 20-30 days and look at 60-min bars, and apply the moving averages to the chart.
LOW AND BEHOLD:
On Monday, July 11 we have a bearish crossover, right around the time BLTIE was in the $6.80's region. The next day we rallied a bit (without crossing back) and on Wednesday the 13th we began selling off again...the very same selloff which has landing us here where we are today playing footsie with breaking $6.00.
So therefore if one had just been stupid and simpleminded and just following this ridiculous MA system you'd be on the right side of the trend and the right side of the trade.
And you can turn things around and say that it doesn't work and call me all the names in the book, because it doesn't matter. Your statement, to whit:
<<And TA, being a way to measure and somewhat reasonably and reliably attempt to predict herd behavior, does NOT MATTER ONE BIT NO MATTER WHAT INDICATOR OR METRIC YOU ARE WATCHING.>>
IS COMPLETELY WRONG.
I think charts are a visual method for judging the mood of the investors. They are very suspect with low volumes, but beter than nothing IMHO.
The case for the large short position moving the stock can be made. I discount it a little since the position has been there for so long. I think most of it is hedged by now.
Lefvel II will drive you nuts. In the last 1/2 hour the stock ran up to $6.13 on about 5K and then back down to $6.09 on less than 2K with 5K at $6.09. The interesting thing is that the 6,100 shares shown at the $6.09 offer didn't change while those 5K shares were bought.
This can give you a head ache. LOL Back to work!
I'm *not* saying it doesn't matter;
I know, you're original point was that it *did* matter, when pkewl was saying that it was suspect you said it depended on the metric, or the indicator. Which implies that given the metric, or the indicator being certina things, that the TA would matter. And TA, being a way to measure and somewhat reasonably and reliably attempt to predict herd behavior, does NOT MATTER ONE BIT NO MATTER WHAT INDICATOR OR METRIC YOU ARE WATCHING.
you are not watching a herd, you are watching two or three people. Maybe three and a third if Frank is playing that day.
You implied that it depended, that TA might matter, in some cases. That is wrong, TA doesn't matter with BLTIE these days, with the short position. "They" are painting the picture and it will look any way they want it to look. ZZZZZZZZZZIp TA goes out the window. It doesn't matter what indicator you look to.