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Cavco Industries, Inc. Message Board

  • flsingleguy2005 flsingleguy2005 Nov 8, 2010 9:56 AM Flag

    expensive vs. peers

    I think its overvalued at this price. SKY is trading are a far better multiple.

    CVCO is worth only $25 a share, not $35.

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    • wtf is a family run hedge fund?

      so you inherited millions and now play with the money ?

      what price are you short and how many?

      I wish i knew the top. but i dont feel like shorting and averaging up. it looked like a short at 38, then at 40, then at 43, then at 45. and it still keeps going higher and higher. over 48 today even on a down day for market.

      I do think the other guy's theory makes more sense. ETF or fund buying to balance positions.. 'basket trading' as amateurs call it. or someone knows something.. think its a coincidence it started its move the day an insider exercised a large amount of shares?

    • We are a family run hedge fund, with profits well over $1.5 million the last two years.

      My point is that money managers do indeed get incentive payments based on paper profits (unrealized gains), and that is a powerful incentive to pump stocks before year end if that is the end of the measurement period.

      If you've heard the term "moral hazard" is one.

      My offer stands.

    • even if you just started shoring when you made your first post you are down almost 2 points already.

      the stock has runup 13 points this month, it can easily run another 3 or 4 points before it pulls in. by then you will be so underwater in your short that even a large pullback won't even break you even. thats the problem with shorting bubble stocks, its impossible to pick the top.

    • "on how stock price is held up, compare the closing price to the vwap.As there is usually low volume, larger holders or their proxies and /or informal affiliates can purchase small amounts of stock near the close to influence the closing price, and possibly further influence momentum players to buy."

      considering this thing has many trades go off and not just 1 your theory makes no sense.

      "If you think this doesn't happen, you are NAIVE."

      if you think this happens then you are the Naive one.

      "Money talks, bs walks, and money managers get paid from results based on paper profits at year end."

      you obviously have no idea how money managers make money to post that drivel. how does running up a stock and losing money when it comes back down result in making money? paper profits? LOL. LOL.

      "Watch CVCO dive in 2011..we'll be there to profit as we have for a number of years."

      who is we? you and your brother sitting in your mommy's basement trading 100 share blocks of this thing?

      "This is a crappy company in a lousy business."

      they are actually a solid company that has profited 2 straight quarters in a less then ideal time.. 0 debt.. plenty of cash. but according to your theory plucked off some OTCBB scam site stocks move based on money managers trying to make paper profits. brilliant analysis.

    • agreed. probably worth $20 imo. See phhm and cohm going under. just about every mfg home out of business or consolidated.

      • 1 Reply to grinderepos
      • I'm with you guys. How is this stock so high?

        I do recognize the very low number of outstanding shares. And while that is of HUGE value here, the price is a bit steep.

        I own Deer Valley (DVLY) and it also has a low number of OS, decent revenue... and they were profitable in both of the last two quaters - which I believe is unprecedented in this space.

        The share price? 50 CENTS per share.

        So if Nobility or Cavco are supporting share prices like I see today, I am very confident in DVLY by comparison.

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