from any bears on this stock. I am long but I know stocks with big short positions can have a flaw not seen by most people. This product seems pretty straight forward and has already been a success in foreign countries. Soda is a huge consumer item so what could go wrong with soda stream?
Gollllyyy Andy, we have a hot one here. Folks, I've been investing in stocks and other stuff for forty years and this SODA is like the many sure thing stories I've heard over the years. The odds are in the long run it will not turn out well. I'm sure it's a great product and it will have a loyal niche following, but to make enough money to cover these lofty expectations is another thing.Too many variables. Meanwhile it's a real dangerous stock. Lots of pitfalls for long and short positions. If you are going to be in this,
don't bet the ranch and stay nimble. Best of luck to you.
It will be a single digit stock when it stumbles. To assume people are going to flock to making their own soda is stupid. I can buy a liter for a 1buck and it last for a week. It is a fad that will fail. As far as the stock just trail stop. It might go higer before it blows up. Watch for sales at BBBY etc ask how they are selling.
BBBY loves the product. Selling like crazy. Now one of the most popular items for wedding registry. Co2 demand very strong along with syrups now. One store manager said several customers have declared it "the best product ever carried by BBBY"
So all you folks that think its a "fad" that's what people said about GMCR before it was a 15 bagger. Shorting a stock because it's "overvalued" is a fools errand. But, be my guest - keep shorting.
"To assume people are going to flock to making their own soda is stupid."
1Q2011 soda maker sales were up +99% over 1Q2010. People ARE flocking to making their own soda. It's not an assumption, it's a fact.
People will don't seem to get that the transportation costs are a significant part of the price of canned or bottled soda. If you assume transportation costs are going to rise, then the cost of store bought soda will too. How can this product fail when it is such an elegant and cost effective solution to what will become an even greater expense for Americans?
I am a bear...just started a short position yesterday. The stock is hugely overvalued for its sector. Nothing against the company just trying to cash in on an over valued stock that is clearly being propped up and manipulated by market makers. Fair value is in the 30s based on projected growth and earnings. At $25 I will cover my short and go long. Good luck to all.
Chances are you will cover your short position above $65 and we will never hear from you again. Be brave. A modest loss is at hand. 4 shares shorted, then covered at say $66, equals only maybe $30 loss plus commissions. Again, be brave. Your paycheck from the bagging job at the local market will cover you in just a couple of days.
Thanks for a rational reponse.
If you apply a consumer-staples P/E to trailing E then the stock certainly is overvalued. But E is growing at over a 100% rate and longs are applying a P/E to future earnings.
Please let us know when you cover.
Heard the same logic over on the GMCR board when it was at $22.20.
The reason that the shorts got killed with GMCR and are also with Soda is that they don't really understand the product.
You may be putting a lot of money on the line. If so, invest a few bucks more and try the product. One way or the other you will be better off.
Sales and earnings are ramping up.The street looks ahead.This stock will be like OPEN or GMCR.You are going to get killed shorting now.I have checked Macys and Bed Bath Beyond stores here in Florida(Broward Cty)and the product is FLYING off the shelves.Short it AFTER the runup to 75 after next earnings not now at 60
a bear would say something like this... " FAD STOCK, do you actually think fat lazy american will go and make his own soda (even tho it has less calories, sodium and sugar, is environmentally friendly and economical) over going to the store and buy some already made soda?? both side have a point. i'm long the stock but the bears make a very good point
You are right, there will aways be a large majority that will still buy at the stores and will never buy this product. However, there are a lot of non-coffee drinkers but Starbucks seems to do okay.
Point is, this only needs a tiny fraction of the beverage market to make a big hit. My bet is that this idea will be a game changer for the industry.
I just bought one earlier today from BBY and asked the clerk if they were selling a lot of them. She kinda laughed and said "a ton"...