I listened to the CC last night in its entirety. It almost sounds too good to be true..so what are us longs missing?? Of course there are many questions still to be answered as to whether it is a fad or not(i think not). Competition? This stock should be trading at around 50. Even the consumables seem better if they take the extra CO2 canisters that consumers are buying and now SODA is registering them as machine sales. In other words many US consumers are buying more that one CO2 canister so they will always have one full at home. This is very positive. I have no fear that they will get many more machines in the market place, especially since they are greatly increasing doors, demos, CO2 refilling stations,the holiday season ad spend is double over last year. ...so what am I missing? The only thing could be that they is concern that the consumables are not keeping up with the sales but this should be a quarter or two out. Then there is Japan and India and Brazil. Sodas time has come but why is the stock until proven otherwise. The world is ready for SODA and the environmental awareness is ripe. Should be a good stock over the next six months and I am a buyer at these levels.
Flavors were up 100% last q. If you smooth this out they are up 50%. Inventories fluctuate but the trend is allot higher. I think they are having a problem with Empire AB which they had problems in the past. Empire seems to be having financial difficulty like they did in 2009. This part of the world is 25% of the companies revenue so any fear that Empire AB could have an effect on earnings. But with the rest of the world taking off they will soon be 10% of revenue and maybe 5% in two years.
They should have put a caption in the earnings release with the extra co2 canisters sold. IR told me that the number was 450,000 this q and much less then half that amount last q. So I figure 350000 more then last q which adds 10% to the co2 number.
Also the other fear i think is a conflict with IRAN. This stock will take off like a rocket ship it just a question of when. Be patient.... Walmart cvs kroger in the wings and I know Costco is doing gangbusters with the product. America soon will be 60% of revenue.
Thank for that insight. I agree on the footnote about CO2..but at least on the CC they did say they were thinking of change the way they deal with this metric. WHICH in my opinion is very necessary. As to Empire AB didn't they say they were close working this out??
As to Iran, i hope these guys begin manufacture in other part of the world. may have to with all of the demand.
...also remember it took GMCR years to explode and for people to "catch on". Look at a chart of GMCR over the past 5 to ten years. SODA is in the first inning of the home beverage market explosion with environmental overtones and healthy alternatives where parents are worried about severe childhood obesity. Plus remember they have their eye on the individual single serving market with their new acquisition in Italy. This could be bigger than we think. Patience.