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SodaStream International Ltd. Message Board

  • goldenseth Feb 6, 2012 12:04 PM Flag

    How do you position?

    With the latest move to solidify above $39 and the recent beat by GMCR, how do you play Soda here in order to maximize profits? Assume they will beat all estimates for the quarter to be reported at month's end. My guesstimation is that we melt up to $44 over next two weeks leading into earnings. Assuming I'm in the right range and we get a healthy beat, I believe a 20% move on earnings would be warranted to achieve a more appropriate multiple. This puts the stock around $52-$53. Positive momentum and sentiment change will obviously force the shorts to cover propelling the stock toward $58 in the coming weeks, maybe month after earnings. Might be conservative but still highly profitable. What's your call folks, how do you think this plays out?

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    • goldenseth Feb 6, 2012 1:09 PM Flag

      Good input guys and everyone makes valid points.

    • If mgmt becomes a little bit liberal in terms of guidance you will see a short sqeeeeezze of biblical proportions. IMO

    • Seth- I also think SODA will easily beat. I think guidence is the key to a HUGE upswing in the stock. SODA has been beating earnings by 40%. There really is no need to underscore earnings by so much. Example- Oppy has a $2.10 estimate for 2012 fiscal year. The company is going finish fiscal 2011 probably in the $1.70 range. That's way over what analysts estimated. If SODA tells analysts their estimates are to low and they expect $2.50 to $3.00 this year, we'd be off to the races. Now we have a company we know is going to grow substantially and therefore should have a much higher PE. Analysts would probably raise price targets IMO

    • I think you take profits AHEAD of earnings assuming she keeps rising into earnings and ride earnings with a MODEST or equal-weighted position(that way, IF they blow out, and IF WS and Birnbrain deliver, you still get the benefit of a LIKELY MASSIVE short squeeze).You are ASSUMING not only a beat(which I do agree is LIKELY although not CERTAIN), but a good WS reaction and a good CC.How'd that work the last two times on GOOD reports Sethster<changed it:)

      P.S. IF the squeeze happens pre-earnings, I might actually walk away entirely-TEMPORARILY:)


    • Higher LOL. My thesis is that Margin should improve with scale along with ARG... This stock will be 70 bucks two weeks after earning... They will do 350 4 bucks a share next year. So my question is what is a fair multiple for a company doing 350 4 bucks forward earning with a 100% growth rate in terms of EPS as far as the eye can see???

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