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SodaStream International Ltd. Message Board

  • martinitony martinitony Jun 18, 2013 10:00 AM Flag

    Trying to picture the mind of a short

    I figure the trading shorts just figure each leg up produces an opportunity to make a little on pullbacks. You really can't argue that because nothing goes up in a straight line. However, over time if the long term trend is up, long traders would likely make more than short traders.
    What is on the mind of long term shorts? They have to believe in the fad concept or they have to believe that at some point SODA will miss and their opportunity is in a dramatic pullback when that happens. Still seems like dead money to me, to be short in a company that has likely long term dramatic growth.

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    • I also like to think what the shorts are thinking, and they have a compelling list:
      1. Stock seems overvalued if it doesn't continue to grow 30%+
      2. Profit margins may shrink as they aggressively increase sales and volume by lowering price and increase advertising
      3. Hope that war in Israel will disrupt the business
      4. Hope that a big player like David Einhorn will disclose a short position like in GMCR
      5. Hope that there are accounting or inventory fraud
      6. Hope that BDS movement will make some impact
      7. Worried that the market will tank, so they pick the high growth small companies to short
      8. Thinking it's another kitchen countertop fad
      9. The health movement causing soda drinking to is decline
      10. The convenience and cost is not there

      However, I think they are wrong which is why I'm long and waiting for the short squeeze. Like what legendary investor Seth Klarman says, "when you buy anything, it’s an arrogant act. You are saying the markets are gyrating and somebody wants to sell this to me and I know more than everybody else so I am going to stand here and buy it."

    • blueleon Jun 18, 2013 10:13 AM Flag

      Shut the hell up already Martin!! Offer nothing as usual. Why don't you fall in line with Giovanni the other posting board moron.

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