Has SODA or anyone else modeled the user's behavior?
We assume that PEP or KO would be cannibalizing their business if they sold through a SodaStream like product, but might that be a wrong assumption?
Could be that some consumers would drink more soda if it was readily available to them and running out was not as likely. Could also be that some consumers would drink more just because it's fun to make your own.
I know that I drink more since I got my machine a couple years ago.
It is possible that KO or PEP would have a reduction in sales since they would cease to sell water, but it could also be that they would be more profitable because of reduced distribution costs, sales costs....etc.
I wonder if either company has actually modeled out the possibilities.
I absolutely drink less overall now. That being said, I haven't bought a single shelf soda outside of SODA products in almost 2 years. (For home consumption that is - obviously restaurants, KO still has my business)
And that's how I see health and wellness ultimately shaping this industry, or moderately re-shaping I should say. Less consumption overall, but SODA provides made-to-order, taste specific, convenient, healthier options than what's sitting on the shelves. My family's consumption habits might be viewed as statistically arbitrary, but I certainly feel we are indicative of the average American home.
Martin, I only post because it worries me just a TAD that I use mine less than before.Some bottled beverages(not COKE or PEP) have found their way home.Hardly a big sample, but I find myself getting lazy if the wife brings home certain healthy bottled drinks.For what it's worth-likely nothing.Long and strong still.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
KO and PEP have known for many years that the more product people have in their pantries they more they consume. The KO and PEP sales forces always talk about the importance of "pantry loading".
I'm not sure I agree with your assumption that a consumer is less likely to run out of SODA than they are to run out of packaged soft drinks. Packaged soft drinks are sold everywhere and their primary retail locations ...grocery, convenience stores, drug stores, etc....are shopped with much greater frequency than the stores where SODA is sold making it much easier to keep them in stock in the pantry.
Yes, at the moment it is easier to find Coke than SodaStream products, but that wouldn't be true if Coke entered the homemade business and soon even SodaStream products will be in the major grocers.
My attitude about this is formed by my own behavior with SodaStream products. Because it is more of a chore to stock up, I really stock up when I do stock up. I don't like to be without.
I believe that the bottling business will be disrupted by homemade soda products very soon. It really makes no sense at all for it to survive if you think about it. Other than the bottlers themselves, everyone is a loser. It cost plenty to ship water around. It takes up large amounts of retail space and that costs lots of money. Takes up trunk space on the way home. Takes up pantry space. Takes up refrigerator space....And then think about the factory space...Makes no sense at all. It will be gone in ten years or less.
Think about coffee. 20 years ago there were about 5 brands pretty much sold ground in tin cans that made up probably 95% of the coffee market. Very few of us bought beans, had grinders etc..
So, how much bigger and profitable is the coffee industry today since people expanded their tastes and brought the coffee shop into their kitchen?
I think that's an interesting example but there's a huge difference between coffee and soft drinks.
It's always been necessary to "make" coffee. Whether it's from a tin can, ground fresh, or from a K Cup making the coffee has always been part of the process of drinking a cup of coffee.
Soft Drinks have always been conveniently packaged and ready to drink of the can or bottle.
It doesn't mean that consumers habits won't change but to shift to SodaStream from packaged goods soft drinks necessitates a change in behavior.