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SodaStream International Ltd. Message Board

  • vanzantbob50 vanzantbob50 Nov 1, 2013 10:37 AM Flag

    Sell in - sell out & MF articles

    new to the board; long term investor
    here's some YOY data:
    NPD sellout data:
    Q3 2013: Machines +12%; CO2 +157%; Flavors +53%
    YTD 2013: Machines +47%; CO2 +265%; Flavors +139%
    "Why Wallstreet is clueless?"; MF 10/31/2013
    I understand Sell out data is not 100% accurate. Why are Q3 datapoints so much below YTD?
    This would imply massive deceleration. What am I missing?

    Sell in Unit Flavor YOY Growth - "Is SS losing its Flavor?"; MF 10/30/2013
    Q3 2012 +70%; Q4 2012 +60%; Q1 2013 +34%; Q2 2013 +18%; Q3 2014 +9%

    This trend looks like more than just retailers adjusting inventory ?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Thank you for posting actual data instead of anecdotal baloney that seems to be dominating this board particularly after the recent earnings.

      Frankly I do not know enough about supply chain management for retailers to make an informed judgement. I think SODA deserves a one quarter pass, however, to see how Q4 pans out. The sheer scope and scale of WMT operations cannot be underestimated and I think if any retailer could have a significant impact on sales metrics it would be WMT.

      I think we need to have another conversation centered around - "How crucial are syrup sales growth for the continued success of SODA's business model?"

      • 2 Replies to ibrowning85
      • The one area that is overlooked regarding sales data but probably represents 10%-15% of sell out sales is the office coffee channel. This channel is a B2B channel that historically doesn't have sell out data since it is a wholesaler mkt and that data isn't as easy to collect as the retailer data (IRI/Neilsen data). The margins n the B2B market is much higher and therefore attractive. The office coffee market is very convenience driven and Kcups play well in that arena. Look at your investment office (e.g. Fidelity) or doctors office and you will see Kcups at any decent office setting.

      • Good response re: Walmart. I'm a new investor so I don't know if management has addressed financial impact of Walmart startup. If not, they should have. I'll start new topic re: syrup if you haven't already

    • Walmart started to sell Sodastream in May 2012, so start from 2013 Q1 the sell in growth was naturally slowing because that. the NPD sell out also reflecting the Walmart impact.

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