Let's think about it. If a company's stock is low because of recent events, economic conditions, whatever and the company expects the future is very bright and they have great confidence, should they consider negotiating an equity sale or should they wait till the past is well behind them, conditions are far better and their stock price is far better? I know that I'd definitely wait.
On the other hand if I wasn't as certain about the future I might consider selling while I still could. It's hard to argue this both ways. If SODA's future is so assured without selling to another, that is giving up considerable equity now, why do it at perhaps the lowest levels in the last couple of years?
I would suggest to you that the management is not as secure as some here would have you believe.
Martin...I see where youre going here, but stock price isnt the main factor doing a deal for these companies. Keep in mind, future value of the asset is the most important. There are many scenarios that would make a short term deal work...even assuming SODA's stock is underpriced according to management. They will do the deal if they think their company will be worth more in the future compared to not doing the deal.. its that simple.
I don't disagree with anything you said. However, some here believe a deal is not necessary. As a real estate broker I might ask someone who says my property is not for sale, "Not at any price?" The guy will usually then give me some price that is unrealistic. The point is that if SODA management believes some of what has been said here, namely, that SODA will do just fine with or without a deal, they would not accept a deal unless the numbers were very good. If share range has been in the $38-$75 over the last 18 months and you feel , as a manager that the company is worth more towards the higher end of that range, would you be doing serious negotiations now when the best outcome sounds like $52/share?
We are taking the Globe article seriously. Was the one last June serious, the one at $95/share? What we are looking at just seems to make little sense. If they see a deal at a far lower price today than 11 months ago, they must believe the company "needs" a deal far more today than a year ago. If that's true, than something has affected their judgement, either failing business expectations or the competition has them riled. But, I read here that GMCR/KO cold machine is junk and all this additional shelf space means things are great.
Now, make your case for why today and not a year ago. Why today at lower prices? Why a deal today instead of waiting for major turn around and a far better deal?
Maybe something is lost in translation. That is my point. You do a deal when the price is good, right? If the price isn't good, then if you do a deal it is because you need to do a deal. Needing to do a deal tells me that things are bad, not good. Give me a reason to want a deal when the price is low.