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NuPathe AŞ Message Board

  • tthomas_analyst tthomas_analyst Jan 28, 2013 11:25 PM Flag

    Nupathe Inc. - On the rise

    Nupathe Inc. recently gained FDA approval for Zecuity (Migraine Patch) and is currently in the process of securing a Partnership. This is a one of a kind and double patented technology and I expect a partnership and/or buyout (due to what happened with MAPP) announcement sometime between now and March 1st based on their CEOs proclamation that Zecuity (NP101) will hit the market this year in the 4th quarter.

    The potential impact to the PATH share price upon announcement of a good partnership deal is monumental. This is not the only catalyst that could cause a big upward surge in the share price. The stock currently sits at $3.79 per share. I believe it is greatly undervalued here especially after FDA approval of such a breakthrough technology as the migraine patch. However, the first full day of trading after FDA approval, there were approximately 5 million preferred shares converted to common stock at a $2.00 per share. Though over 10 million shares traded that day the combination of weaker holders selling the news and the preferred conversion appears to have prevented the stock from reaching the levels it should have. Had that not occurred, I believe the share price would have easily topped $5 per share that day. The stock traded at a high of $5.10/share prior to PDUFA rejection the first time they tried to get NP101 approved.

    Since the volatility after approval, the stock has seemed to settle for the most part trading in a fairly snug .15 - .20 cent range. Now that the FDA approval is out of the way, there are no potential negative catalyst that would greatly impact this stock. There are a few huge potential positves on the other hand.

    1.) Stock crosses and stays above $4.00 per share. Once this happens, Nupathe Inc. can require Aspire to purchase 2.9 million shares over roughly a one month period as I understand it. That is more than 10% of the current available shares. I think this easily moves the stock somewhere between $5.00 and $6.00 per share.

    2.) Nupathe Inc. announces a partnership. This should add $.75 to $1.25 to the share price immediately after the announcement. We should see a share price of over $18 in 18 months if we are able to capture 10% of the potential market.

    3.) A buyout. If this were to happen, shareholders should expect a big premium here. However, since the company has stated they are seeking a partnership and not a buyout I will make detailed estimates.

    The company is very small and has had limited exposure. A large partner would give us the exposure and funding we need to go global. I would be sincerely thankful for a good partnership as would many of the longs who held through FDA approval. Some since the initial IPO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • chemology Feb 1, 2013 3:32 PM Flag

      The only rise you'll get is your temperature as you get taken over the coals of this so called promising company that's going nowhere fast. If it's so good why isn't it going anywhere in the way of connections,alliances, buy-outs or pps. Why? Because it's the little engine that can't and won't on it's own and will be picked up for spare change when they don't have the forces to put it over on their own.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • I like this post. Keep it up.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks for posting Thomas! Very nice!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Nice post. Will you give us a link to your information that reason number one came from.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to bobradcliff77777
      • As of July 15, 2011, there were 14,581,580 shares of our common stock outstanding. If all of the 2,901,734 shares of our common stock offered
        hereby were issued and outstanding as of the date hereof, such shares would represent approximately 17% of the total common stock outstanding as of
        the date hereof. The number of shares of our common stock ultimately offered for sale by Aspire Capital is dependent upon the number of shares
        purchased by Aspire Capital under the Purchase Agreement.
        Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement and the Registration Rights Agreement, we are registering under the Securities Act 2,901,734 shares of our
        common stock, which includes the Commitment Shares and the Initial Purchase Shares that have already been issued to Aspire Capital and 2,746,147
        shares of common stock which we may issue to Aspire Capital after this registration statement is declared effective under the Securities Act. All
        2,901,734 shares of common stock are being offered pursuant to this prospectus. Under the Purchase Agreement, we have the right but not the
        obligation to sell more than the 2,901,734 shares of common stock offered in this prospectus to Aspire Capital. If we elect to sell more than the
        2,901,734 shares of common stock offered hereby, we must first obtain the approval of our stockholders to do so and register under the Securities Act
        the sale of any additional shares we may elect to sell to Aspire Capital before we can put such additional shares to Aspire Capital under the Purchase
        After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") has declared effective the registration statement of which this prospectus is a
        part, on any trading day on which the closing sale price of our common stock is not less than $4.00, or the Floor Price, we have the right, in our sole
        discretion, to present Aspire Capital with a purchase notice (each, a "Purchase Notice"), directing Aspire Capital (as principal) to purchase up to
        100,000 shares of our common stock per trading day, provided that the aggregate price of such purchase shall not exceed $500,000 per trading day, up
        to $30.0 million of our common stock in the aggregate at a per share price (the "Purchase Price") calculated by reference to the prevailing market price
        of our common stock (as more specifically described below).

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Good post, it summarizes the reasons for longs to be confident in their decision to hold and/or add additional shares. It's going to be fun to see what develops and how soon. I plan to hold until we get into the teens.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy