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  • ontopofitall4u ontopofitall4u Feb 16, 2013 5:00 PM Flag

    This is my opinion about PATH

    I just sold my 8400 shares at $3.70-$3.71. I had bought them at $$2.98 and sold them originally at $3.80 and repurchased $3.56. I gave up when MAPP was bought out. I think PATH will just sit in this same range until MAPP either gets approval or denied. If for some reason MAPP get denied, PATH will go up. The competition in headaches is very large. PATH product, although it does work , is very expensive. Until PATH can prove this patch can be used for more uses, I think there will be no movement in price. It will become a trading stock and slowly bleed down in price. I will become interested again when they decide to get another use for the patch and get close to phase 3 results with the new application. Just like SOMX, when that stock went from $2.80 to $6.90 and then $10, there is way too much competition at a much lower price. SOMX never found a partner and the stockfell to 50 cents where they did a 1 for 5 R/S. .I don't think PATH will become that bad because they have other things to fall back on but I do believe the price will become stagnant until the MAPP FDA announcement.
    I traded my NAVB shares for PATH when they were in the $2.90's. I made a good trade because I figured NAVB would stay at $3.00 because of options. I just bought my shares of NAVB back just before the end of the day yesterday at $3.07-$3.08. I think NAVB will be run back up to $3.35 next week and then depending on options again, I may trade back out of NAVB at the beginning of March and wait to see what the March 15 options are set at. The stocks that are being manipulated by the shorts, like NAVB, options are completely in control of the price. With the FDA decision for NAVB on April 30th, I think the March options will probably bring the price back down again unless most option are set at $4.00 instead of $3.00.
    I also picked up some shares of DCTH because that stock is a good trading stock and being 4 months ahead of their PDUFA date of June 14th, I expect a good run up in price because options will not be involved and DCTH does have a real good shot at approval. Most pharma stocks will get a run up in price 3-4 months before PDUFA date and then the price will be brought back down due to options again 2 months before their date. Seeing their PDUFA date is June 14th and no options in June, before the announcement, I think May will be the month the stock is brought back down. I will be selling DCTH on this run up and be buying back in May when the price is brought back down again.Not every stock follows this pattern but many pharma stocks are run up, then brought back down and then run up again going close to approval date. I will play NAVB and DCTH with these patterns.
    MAPP PDUFA date is April 15th so PATH will be trading up and down until that point.
    JMO and I will be watching PATH to see how the trading is going. I could get out of NAVB when it is run up in the next two weeks and get back into PATH again.

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