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Diamond Foods, Inc. Message Board

  • cleto487 cleto487 Feb 13, 2012 5:35 PM Flag

    FACTs read below but lets stick to this and make this a better informative board

    1) who cares about the 1/500 growers who has a compalint
    2) who cares about HERB or the DOj
    3) we do care that the DMND company has good assets without pringles and probably worth 50 dollars a share on asset vaulation
    4) we are concerned that expenses were pushed out as well explained by NY times article.. ( and negative image)
    4) we are more concerened that the present forcast of earnings for 2012 are not realistic an dneed to be lowered by at least anywhere from 30- 50%..

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    • I think you "get it" with regards to earnings. 2012 will be a lot lower than people originally thought because the 2011 numbers weren't real. If the restated number for 2011 was $1.50, then the estimate for 2012 would be closer to $1.65 at best.

      I think 2012 will be a lot worse than that because the growers are likely to to desert DMND over the next several years. I don't believe that it's just the handful of growers that the reporters have talked to. The growers who wanted stock in the IPO had to commit to supply DMND for a number of years. As these commitments expire, the growers who were taken advantage of by DMND will go elsewhere.

      It's naive to think that a company that cheats on its financials isn't cheating elsewhere. As Warren Buffet said, "There's never just one cockroach in the kitchen".

    • prime.... understtand that i do believe that there is a natural growth in their business .... but also u will appreciate that their base earnings of what 2.50 or so are now estimated to grow to about 2.90 in 2012 is due to growth and full integration of kettle chips.. greta but the base of 2.50 is artificially high right? therefore the growth has to be added to teh corrected 2011 NEW numbers of probably 1.50. It isnt I but THE ANALYST from Davidson I think, that said he lieks teh tsock on valuation basis and that they have an earnings power in teh short term of 1.80, thats my point and once the market all realizes that then we can all go long hard and make money.. coming soon I hope..

    • You are missing the point. It is all about 2012 earnings.

      In September, management guided 2012 earnings higher than the Street. Suppose this upgrade in earnings is due to "moving of costs into 2013?" If so the new management will reverse this and the upwards guidances is gone.

    • gkueter Feb 13, 2012 6:04 PM Flag

      re 2012 - why do you think that forecast needs to be lowered - they are pulling 60M in expenses out of the 2012 year -- unless they had plans to push more than 60M out the end of 2012 their new numbers for 2012 should improve

      • 1 Reply to gkueter
      • let me explai... the old management was still in place, they owuld push out probably at least 50 million out to next the article says its an attempt to kick the can out , push the expense continuously forward...
        rememebr the 2012 year has nothing reported yet,its only estimates based on 2011 plus natural growth, but teh base of 2011 is no longer whatever 2.25 say ,it will be 1.50 maybe, understand that is 40 million less credits from lower income taxes etc..

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