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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • hotest01 Jan 13, 2011 4:35 PM Flag

    THE DRIVE TO $8 is gonna be great! :)

    Ok folks! The drive to $5 has been completed and we are just days away for NRF's standard divy announcement!

    With such a push in the price there is a chance we can anticipate NRF making an increase in dividend announcement.

    If this is the case NRF will jump to $7+ ... there is a 50% chance of it happening now and 80% chance that div's will be increased for Q1 2011.

    Now that NRF is above the $5 mark we should see MM's start making a move on NRF over the next 2 weeks. NRF will see a major move towards the $8 mark shortly after Q4 is released.

    $10 - $12 mark will be reached by years end.

    That's what the crystal ball says...

    Now take it & go! ;)

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    • WRONG!!!

    • Howz that "Drive to $8" going today?

      • 1 Reply to steve_y86
      • hotest01 Mar 3, 2011 2:19 PM Flag

        Ha! Don't have any issues with it. Nothing goes straight up or down. The ride i took with KFN from $1.40 to $9.00 currently at $10+ was just as bumpy if not more. I can honestly say I've increased my holdings.

        Still fully confident that this is just a move to shake out the loose ends and opens the door for the bigger financial institutions to 'Buy'

        Look what % the institutional holdings are at in a months time. It went up another 1% this week. And we'll probably see their holdings increase to 40% shortly as Black Rock Doubled thier holdings to over 5mil in Feb.

        Why would institutions be buying NRF? You don't think they've made a call to Hamo for a lunch meeting before they by 2mil+ shares? ;)

        Take It & Go! ;)

    • I tend to agree and I'd be very pleased with $7.

      Maybe they will find a new source of cheap debt and can expand the business. Maybe they can find another bargain basement CDO.

      Maybe they can accelerate the fund raising inside the non-traded REITs.

      Did you notice that buyout of NHP? Healthcare properties are gaining interest these days. There are a lot of people excited about putting the baby boomers in nursing homes.

    • What are thinking in terms of price appreciation from here? Seems to me to fully valued, especially given the $33m in security gains, the continued PLLLs, the lack of capital raise for the private REITS. The only source of optimisim is the new CDO. I cant see it trading above $7 this year. Take out security gains and AFFO goes down to .24c for the qtr. Is the market thinking .96 AFFO for 2011, thus a slight increase in dividend?

    • Richardson leaving doesn't trouble me. After this last winter, who wouldn't want to leave NY for TX? He probably sees the growth potential for his package at Howard Hughes as providing the opportunity to make him truly wealthy. Why not swing for the fences?

      I don't think his leaving has to do with the fancy accounting. I'm trusting that Grant Thornton wouldn't allow anything that is illegal.

      Bottom line for me is that Hamo is the brains of this operation.

    • What troubles me is the fact that 1/2 of the earings came from security gains yet once again. What also bothers me is that provision keep on coming. The debt buybacks are great, but not revenue driven. We need a business model that works in this market, and I see that they are clearly trying. BTW agg, does Richardson leaving give you some hesitation???

    • It has been a great run!

      Here's to hoping that Hamo can find another couple CSE-type CDOs to take over.

    • hotest01 Mar 1, 2011 10:06 AM Flag

      Ha! The above was written by hotest not sunbrey :) using a different laptop.

    • I remain skeptical about $8 any time this year or even next although I would be delighted beyond belief if it were to happen. Actually I'd prefer to see the dividend increase as I am a relatively long term holder, although I might sell some shares if it did hit $8. What has me astonished and delighted is that the NRF-B is now up to $21.68, heck that is almost at par. Back when I picked up a measly 1400 shares at $6.85 I wish I had had more money to buy. What a steal that was. Of course the common were also selling at a ridiculous price of around $2 or so but sadly I already had a boatload that I had bought for a whole lot more.Oh well, better a half a loaf than none. GLL


      • 2 Replies to kenpalley2000
      • hotest01 Jan 28, 2011 10:40 AM Flag

        The economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter, an improvement from the 2.6% pace in the prior period. But economists were generally expecting the fourth quarter to show a 3.5% expansion in the nation's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced inside U.S. borders.

        For all of 2010, GDP grew by 2.9% -- after contracting by 2.6% in 2009.

        Economic performance in the latest fourth quarter was boosted by strong personal spending, reflected in the best holiday retail sales since 2006 as consumers felt more confident and made purchases that they had put off during the recession.


        With this kind of growth or better in 2011, NRF and all of CRE market will see a strong recovery. As retail improves and manufacturing improves CRE becomes more scares and the value will increase quickly in the 2nd half of 2011. Also those who where having difficulties paying rent will find that they are able to float again, rents are also on the verge of increasing, NRF has done a fantastic job on maintaining a high occupancy rate.

        NRF has positioned themselves perfectly to make huge gains in this 2011 recovery.

        Now take it & go ;)

      • Yes, Sir. NRF and NRF-B have turned out to be great investments at this point. (especially my March 5, 2009 block of B purchased at $6.80).

        Not nearly as good as my BEE-C bought at $2.55 or my SFI-PF bought at $3.12, but there are only so many 10-baggers that one can expect.

        I'd love for NRF and its preferred to keep running . . . but I see myself more in the realist camp with Ken.

        But then again, I didn't think SFI would run from $3 to $8 before they have even secured a refinancing.

    • i like that crystal ball

      • 2 Replies to no_iwontdothat
      • hotest01 Jan 27, 2011 10:19 AM Flag

        As the crystal ball predicted 6+ months ago that the Dow Jones would hit 12000 by Jan 2011!

        The Dow should rally to 14000 by year end. Still billions of investor $$$ on the sidelines and we should see this move back into the markets and most likely out of gold as confidence builds that the US economy is growing again.

        NRF is showing good strength as it's clear that NRF is still undervalued should climb back towards its high and possibly break it before the ex-divended.

        NRF will climb past $6 and head toward $7 within weeks after the 2010 Q4 report. Too many future positives to hold NRF down and we should hear about them in the CC (conference call).

        The main key is for NRF to reach the $5.50 mark and then hold steady around that number. Once that happens we'll see a strong move from the MM's followed by the FM's.

        So BUY BUY BUY while you can ... the $5's aren't going to be hear much longer!

        That's what the crystal ball shows ...

        Now take it & go! ;)

      • hotest01 Jan 21, 2011 9:55 AM Flag

        Well Wednesdays slip and slid was a bit of a bump in the road.

        But let the the drive to $8 continue!

        After reviewing the big bank releases one thing that I've noticed is that they all had big decreases in loan losses. This is exactly what the crystal ball has been showing for 2011 a major reduction or removal in loan losses.

        This alone will improve NRF's numbers by $100 mil in 2011 thats $1.00 per share folks!

        Q4 should have LLP's below $30mil, that's a $12mil improvement in the $19mil operating profits. Which is why we should be seeing an AFFO above the $0.20 for Q4 and probably closer to $0.28

        EPS is just alot of accounting adjustments at this time and therefor is much less relevent than AFFO but EPS will most likely come in on the positive this Q after last Q's major write up in liabilities.

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