Some of these folks have big egos, that can drive their thinking. Examples are Ackman with Herbalife or Ichan with Dell and a number of other investments. Ackman is currently in a $300m+ hole with Herbalife and insists he is right? I have a clue for him. He might be right going forward, but, he has been very wrong on HBL up to this point. Result,,,,his investors are out $300m! It almost appears that we have an 'ego' short or two in NRF, and they are out to prove they are right........
Well said. The nice thing about the market is that we're all on a level playing field. The market is larger than all of us put together. It's larger than you, me, and the biggest of the biggest players. When any of us is right we profit. When any of us is wrong, we suffer losses.
The downfall of the "big ego" people is that they imagine that they control enough capital to move the market. They think they can buy a position then deploy enough capital to make the position profitable regardless of whether their analysis is correct. That never works. The market is always bigger than they are.
Decades ago I started work at the most popular restaurant in my city. You'd think that the owner would be a friendly personality, as most restaurant owners are, who glad-handed the customers. But this guy wasn't like that at all. When closing time came he'd turn the lights out to run the customers out of there, even if they were half way through their meals. When customers complained about slow service, he'd bring them the food immediately, even if it wasn't cooked.
His business philosophy was: "People are stupid." And he was right. most people ARE stupid, including a lot of the ones who handle big wads of other people's money. When they are wrong the market will always beat them in the end, just like it beats us smaller fry.