So, before today's press release, the last announced dividend of 20 cents when annualized = 80 cents.
NRF closed today at 9.33. So, .80/9.33 = 8.5745% yield.
Now, the last announced dividend is 21 which annualizes to 84. Demanding exactly the same yield, .84 / 8.5745% = 9.796 price. Some rationality in this nutso market will give kenpally his 9.77 flip on today's 9.27 buy
tomorrow at the open. But the aftermarket ask is now 9.53.
The above gives no premium to the fact that the dividend has been increased 9 quarters in a row. It also gives no premium to the fact that 78 cents paid in 2013 is only 73.4% of the August midpoint estimate of 1.06 2013 cad.
It also gives no consideration to the fact that about 60% of 2013 cad will come from equity reit assets and annuity management fees. Any 8th grader with some effort in extrapolation can surmise this percentage will be about 70% (or higher given recent new investment ratios) for 2014.
When the market is this stupid, I'll just wait until it gets pounded into its collective head.
I dont beleive in 100% efficient market theory. But I do beleive it is somewhat prevalent in some varying proportions. 0.21 was expected, perhaps its all priced in.... I hope not. Maybe will see a pop tomorrow.
Efficient Market Theory has nothing to do with the efficient pricing of securities. EMT says that the future price of a security depends on the course of future events. You have to have broad and deep markets, efficient markets to see this effect.
Dar et al,
Of course one must always remember the old dictum" Sometimes the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". Fortunately my own solvency is not at risk at this point (although some would certainly question both my sanity and my sobriety with the former an open question and the latter an open and shut case) so I will just sit back, drink and enjoy the fascinating unfolding of events. Cheers and GLL