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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Oct 31, 2013 10:00 AM Flag

    The dividend tells us

    that the shorts ain't gunna get their wish for a big stumble in the earnings report.

    Subtract 21 cents from any purchase price today thru next Tuesday because you are buying 21 cents worth of dividend. Ultra technical people will subtract 20 cents, and, for taxable accounts, will factor in the tax effect of buying a taxable dividend vs buying a lower tax basis on the ex date. Of course a today buy is before earnings are known. That goes away tomorrow morning before the open.

    So a buy now at say, 9.42 is really 9.22 plus dividend. So, 94 cents in 2014 if penny per quarter continues for another year means well over 10% yield from a growing company whose 2014 cad will be about 70% from equity reit assets and management fees. Hamo must be busting a gut with frustration.

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    • Hamo and me are both frustrated. I am just beside myself with the lack of stock price increase. I have absolutely no intention of selling as I agree with Dar and the future growth of this company, but at what point does Hamo and management change the publics perception that this is a traditional reit. I will be around to see when their frustration manifests itself in some plan of action. It has to happen sometime, as these people are to smart to realize that the true value of this company is not being reflected in the market.

    • I am realy shocked at price reaction to another dividend increase. The short commitment is unbelievably strong. Is the short thesis is unbelievably strong?

      I can only go back to the macro environment. You are a pretty smart guy and it cannot be lost on you that this is a fundamentally weak economy supported by printed money and artifically low interest rates. We now have more people on food stamps than the entire poplulation of Spain. At the end of the day all cash flows and profits are dependent upon average people having the ability to buy and pay for goods and services. My feeling is that more and more people are skating on thin ice. The cost of Obamacare is going to be one more straw on the camel's back. Still long here, but nervous, not about NRF, but really nervous about this false macro economy.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to achilles197474
      • The economy has been in liquidation mode since the late 1990s. Since that time American companies have been liquidating their USA assets, including their employees, and relocating overseas.

        This means that the USA is headed toward Third World status. The only jobs in a Third World country are:

        A) Employees of the government
        B) Government-licensed entities like banks and public utilities
        C) Petty merchants who sell knick-knacks out of their houses.
        D) Property owners

        What's missing from a Third World economy is big-company, corporate employment. These are the "easy" jobs where people get paid a lot of money for doing marginal amounts of work then retire at age 65 with a gold watch and a pension with company-paid healthare till they die.

        We all know that these jobs of the professional middle class are the ones that are becoming extinct. The best we can probably aspire to is D) property owners. This is the only class that will be gaining nominal wealth for the next few decades, thanks to the printing of money.

    • It didn't take them long to do their "smackdown." I'd look for the same thing tomorrow --- a big dump no matter how the earnings are. Then quiet covering over the next couple of weeks if earnings are OK.

      I don't know how anybody can be short anything knowing that "old Yellen" will be here in two months printing money like gangbusters. We might even get the "repat" --- the "taper" in reverse.

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