Short sales yesterday were only 25%, so yesterday's drop was simply more sellers than buyers. Same so far today. IMO, market is expressing it's displeasure over Hamo's apparent failure to deliver on 6/30.
While I have utter distain for the work ethic of most government employees, I can't help but feel NRF blew this.
File on Feb 5 and can't get it done by mid-June?
I suppose it ain't over till it's over. Failure ain't failed (past tense) until it's past tense.
Substantively, it doesn't matter whether the spin is 6/30 or 7/30 (other than unnecessary closing the books costs). If NSAM independent operations start a month later than expected, it means a bigger NRF dividend in nov equal to a smaller NSAM dividend. The total of the two dividends will be the same as with a 6/30 spin.
Nevertheless, a failure to deliver is a failure to deliver. Deliver as stated 9 times out of 10. Guess which one is remembered. That's what's happening in the market, imo.
Dar, do you feel that the failure by this management team to deliver, when in the past they have delivered, is possibly related to the unchartered territory, and the lack of understanding on their part of what they are trying to do? Separately, does your observation that management will have 500MM shares allotted to them concern you with regards to future CAD numbers as such a large block of shares should be significantly dlutive to the shareholders? Your insights are always appreciated. Thank you.
There is a big difference between shares authorized and shares issued. NSAM starts with about 200 million issued out of 1 billion authorized. The fact that 500 million giveaway shares are authorized in no way means they all will be issued, nor does it mean that they will be issued proportionately to authorization
500 million giveaways to 1 billion paid fors does nothing but indicate the scale of their greedy dreams.
Giveaway shares = real, hard dilution of those who pay cash for shares.
As to the failure to deliver, get all the facts before feet start kicking butts. My instinct is to kick. My experience says to get all facts first.
Who came up with the last minute second step of merging into nrfc sub-reit first? Why was that not put forward in March? What changed between Feb and June to cause the second step? Who did what when starting with the 2/5 filing?
I don't have any facts other than what became public, so I can't say who is at fault. But if I were Hamo, who now has fecal matter all over his reputation, I sure as hell would find out.
I agree that failure to deliver, if that in fact is the case, may not mean much in the long run but certainly raises doubt and uncertainty which the market notoriously doesn't like. Nothing to be done but be patient.