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ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures Message Board

  • stockplaza555 stockplaza555 Apr 19, 2013 7:32 PM Flag

    I have seen this go from 50 to 130 .. do a Split and then again go to 100 - now 83 close!

    In that period a lot of volatility last May market correction, Fiscal Crisis, Italy/Cyprus, Bombings/Ricin etc.
    Despite all that sh%t between this rose from $20s to $80s now ...
    What do you think the price of this will be in 2 years from now ...
    I am optimistic that it will be another 4 fold or about $300 .. That's what I believe in ... and I am prepared for shaft downs like this as it happened a few times in the last 12 months!

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    • stockplaza,
      I am not sure about SVXY but at least in the XIV prospectus there is language about the likelihood of the fund going to zero as a result of inverse and/or leveraged exposure.
      I am assuming this applies just as well to SVXY.
      Based on past charts, I think you have a valid strategy, but I would like to here your comments on this point of the prospectus.
      The other thing I wonder about is what would happen if we entered a bear market and indexes stopped rising for a long time, such as the period between 1929-1939. Right now the charts do not reflect this possibility, because recent crashes have not lasted all that long before rebounds occurred. Nonetheless, historically, there have been very long periods without rebounds. This would be my main concern with holding SVXY longterm. When the 1929 bear started, no one was expecting it, and no one expected it to last so long either.

      Interested to hear your thoughts on these issues.

      • 1 Reply to jupiter_symphony33
      • Xactly Jupiter...nice to see some common sense. There's no free lunch. Although Stockplaza seems to think so. If SVXY is guarenteed to continue upward like he thinks, why would anyone bother beeing in the stock market..just pile into SVXY and enjoy the free money. right?..everyone would do it. Anyway, you so correct in that this instument hasn't experiences a sustained multi-year pullback or bear market if you will...hell, it pulls back 30% on an S&P 35 handle down move!...If this was ever around in 00'-02...It would have seen Zero. If it were here in 08-09, it would have been zero also....It has only experienced a benign market since its inception...Thats changing now...gonna get interesting

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