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Abraxas Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • mcminc33 mcminc33 Jan 25, 2013 4:57 PM Flag

    What price per share makes investors satisfied here????

    Considering the Clinton Groups assessment of just over $4, I wonder what readers here would consider a fair evaluation the end of the second quarter (and the 2nd quarter report)? I think most here are expecting an unloading of non-prime assets and a few gushers to show for all the trouble the delayed rig caused. So I'm wondering......what share price gets Bob off the hook (if any)? And Why?

    Just thinkin'


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    • Is your question about investor satisfaction, or about reasonable expectations?

      I have been lucky with AXAS, made money every time. Recently bot at 1.80, out of 90% of those shrs at 2.20.

      Compare AXAS to KOG (a more mature operation) or TPLM. It's very hard to think AXAS will hit 3.00 this yr.

      To do that, they will have to show they can do more than the $94M of rev that analysts expect now, and do it more profitably than the .12/sh the analysts expect now.

      TPLM has expected eps in 2013 of .47, and sells for 6.00 or so. Applying that multiple to AXAS and you get about 1.40#$%$ also cheaper on price/sales ratio.

      Lastly, stop whining about what price this, or any energy stock was. We have a president, and his entire party, that is totally against fossil fuels. Have you missed that? They have pressed the auto companies for more fuel efficient cars, they have done everything they can to screw up the oil companies. That alone hurts valuations a lot. AXAS probably won't see 6 during the next 4 yrs, and after that, it depends on the next election. I moved most of my energy investments to drug/biotechs after I realized that there was no "moving to the middle" with this guy...

      My advice, trade oil plays, but invest where BO wants you to, healthcare, etc.

    • well, 3.03 would be break even for me, so that'd be a nice start

      • 1 Reply to meh76_1999
      • I bet the $3 area would make a lot of people happier then they are now; but I don't think that would stop the Bob bashers from continuing. I bet it would take a $4 PPS to do that with no reversals afterward. If AXAS can hit $4 in the next 2 quarters, momentum could take it into the $5's just as easy. When oilers start to run-it's like a stampede! Maybe they can put that into Bob's rodeo!!

        just thinkin'


    • Mickey, imo, $3.50 after the 2nd quarter report would give Bob Watson another 6 months. With 6 months of time BW should be able to right this sinking ship...have you looked at the cash on hand? Pathetic.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to chimakot
      • "Sinking Ship" Are we talking about the same company ? I don't see any indication whatsoever that the ship is sinking .. Cash on Hand isn't so much a concern given the credit facility. I agree it would be great to be cash flow positive, but to not be doesn't mean the company is heading to Ch.11 anytime soon.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Chim, I'm going to wait until I hang a pathetic sign on Bob Watson. I've been lucky enough to have guessed long a while ago and he's actually made some money for me. That doesn't mean I'm head over heels for him at this point-more of a what have you done for me lately type of deal.
        I want to see what he can do now that the Clintons have him under the gun. Sometimes that's what it takes for some people to start to run. I'm with you as far as waiting for the 2nd quarter results. That should give him enough time to follow the Clinton's "suggestions". (I think those made a lot of sense).
        But you are right about the present cash on hand/ debt/lack of news and just about anything else you want to throw against the wall. I want to see what this guy can do when he's under the gun....we'll see how he feels at this "rodeo"

        just thinkin'


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