"Goldman, however, is extremely confident regarding Ebix and believes that the company had no involvement in such malpractices. Therefore, Goldman is contended with the deal and is hopeful of taking Ebix to new heights and maximizing its growth potential."
Let me explain something to people. Morgan Stanley acted as sell-side adviser to EBIX. A banker at Morgan Stanley called a guy or gal at Goldman's Merchant Banking Division and told him/her about the opportunity. They could talk high level about EBIX, but no information beyond public information could be shared. If Goldman were interested in moving forward, they would have to sign a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) before receiving additional non-public information. They were and they did. From the time of signing that NDA to finalizing deal terms, Goldman would be able to look at whatever they wanted to. No limits. If there were limits, they likely wouldn't do a deal. So what does this mean???
It means Goldman actually knows whether they manipulated the financials and whether the international tax strategy was sound or not. They have their own international tax strategy people that would review it. It means Goldman actually knows whether they are under investigation by the SEC or IRS. It means Goldman actually knows the answers to these questions. And given the quote at the top of this post, it means the answers to these questions are no.
Is EBIX manipulating the financials? No
Is EBIX doing anything improper with their international tax strategy? No
Is EBIX under a formal investigation by the SEC? No
Is EBIX under investigation by the IRS? No
It also means that other interested parties, after they sign NDAs and find out the answers to these questions themselves, should have no problems moving forward. It means that higher offers are likely to come since $20 is really low.
If I were one of these incompetent fraudster short sellers, I would be pretty concerned right now...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
the reason to sell is because holding until the deal closes in Q3 only gives a 2.0% return if held to buyout at 20, which is small considering 1) opportunity cost and 2) the risk the deal could fall through if a majority of shareholders do not approve the deal
I'd guess the odds of the deal falling through are lower than a higher buyout offer, and a bidding war could reward shareholders nicely. And buyout premiums are usually higher than 7.5%, more like 20-30% which implies 22-24. But the percentage of acquired companies that end up getting bid up by second offers is low, right?
But can understand holding here, it's a low risk way to bet on a bidding war. But selling OTM puts puts more money in my pocket that holding out for 20, and puts it there now, with lower risk