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Xcel Energy Inc. Message Board

  • margin321 margin321 Mar 7, 2000 11:22 AM Flag

    Is it true?

    Is it true that the rate concessions will cause
    Excel any problems. The way the company spins it the
    concessions are just a small fraction of the overall cost
    savings they will incur. And to my knowledge the plan is
    to support a dividend in the range of current NSP
    and NCE dividends, which I think are pretty similar
    in terms of yield.

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    • When I looked at the insider trading pattern over
      the last several months at NSP and at NCE the great
      contrast between the two different patterns piqued my
      curiosity. Anyone with internet access can look at similar
      data (available for free) at a number of
      well-respected financial web sites.

      In addition, I have
      found the postings on the NCE message board here a
      Yahoo to be kind of interesting over the past few days.

    • Good Morning margin321:

      Yes, certainly you
      are quite correct re those two block trades. Those
      were certainly institutions. I guess my point is that
      this stock is held by a very large number of
      institutions and if only a few of them dumped their shares, we
      didn't fare so badly. And, we were all there to pick up
      the slack. It all looks to be under control this
      date. By the way, should we be getting close to a
      dividend announcement?


    • you write..."You're right about the indidual
      investors bailing at the first can be sure that
      the institutional players are right there sucking up
      all the stock they can get at these prices." Doubt
      the two block sales of more than 200,000 shares were
      individuals bailing out. Everyone (small, large, individuals,
      institutions) has been bailing out, contributing to the
      downslide. But we seem to be steadying here.

    • I am concerned as to whether the earnings will
      support the concessions. I would have to think that
      NSP/NCE was managed well in the past and the employee
      reduction isn't the key isssue in the synergies. I am not
      sure that the reduction of emploees by combining
      business areas is sufficient to deal with the loss of
      revenue. The past current earnings were not exactly
      stellar. I have held 3300 shares from the last split so i
      get Pi$$ed when i see the incentives based on the
      merger and not fundamentals. It is alarming to me that
      the street dosn't buy at these levels with the
      current rate of return on the dividend. IMHO the dividend
      is at risk.

      • 2 Replies to freeadvise
      • I recently went to the web site (its
        free) and entered NSP; then I clicked GO and on the
        following screen I clicked on the "Evaluator" tab. Under
        #3, "Management Performance", I found a picture of
        deteriorating key financial ratios (ROE, ROI, ROIC) with the
        recent (5 years or a little more) slippage being
        markedly greater for NSP than for the utility industry as
        a whole. The #5 "Intrinsic Value" tab assigns a
        value to the sum of NSP's parts that is on the order of
        one third of the current market price. Recent NSP
        tape action seems to show the unmistakable tracks of
        institutions bailing out- I hope I'm wrong about that because
        there are large institutional holdings (NSP was once a
        rock-solid, guilt-edged utility). Look at the data for ten
        years ago and draw your own conclusions. For those
        counting on a high yield going forward, I suggest thinking
        about what might happen to the final conversion ratio
        in any merger. NCE shareholders comparing data like
        these between NCE and NSP might come to seriously
        question the wisdom of such a business combination. I
        cannot help but wonder just exactly what achievements
        during management's tenure merit those generous golden
        parachutes (of guaranteed cash value, no doubt).

      • Volume should hit 2 million today with 2 blocks
        over 200k.

        Looks like I won't get any at 16
        today. Likely we will need two more Greenspan speeches
        for that.

        I know plan is to maintain healthy
        utility type dividend for Excel, similar to past payout
        policies of NSP and NCE. I doubt they would negotiate
        merger conditions that forced a slashing of the
        dividend. What exactly would be the point? Howard talked
        yesterday of financial benefits to shareholders as well as

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