Is it true that the rate concessions will cause Excel any problems. The way the company spins it the concessions are just a small fraction of the overall cost savings they will incur. And to my knowledge the plan is to support a dividend in the range of current NSP and NCE dividends, which I think are pretty similar in terms of yield.
When I looked at the insider trading pattern over the last several months at NSP and at NCE the great contrast between the two different patterns piqued my curiosity. Anyone with internet access can look at similar data (available for free) at a number of well-respected financial web sites.
In addition, I have found the postings on the NCE message board here a Yahoo to be kind of interesting over the past few days.
Yes, certainly you are quite correct re those two block trades. Those were certainly institutions. I guess my point is that this stock is held by a very large number of institutions and if only a few of them dumped their shares, we didn't fare so badly. And, we were all there to pick up the slack. It all looks to be under control this date. By the way, should we be getting close to a dividend announcement?
you write..."You're right about the indidual investors bailing at the first turn...you can be sure that the institutional players are right there sucking up all the stock they can get at these prices." Doubt the two block sales of more than 200,000 shares were individuals bailing out. Everyone (small, large, individuals, institutions) has been bailing out, contributing to the downslide. But we seem to be steadying here.
I am concerned as to whether the earnings will support the concessions. I would have to think that NSP/NCE was managed well in the past and the employee reduction isn't the key isssue in the synergies. I am not sure that the reduction of emploees by combining business areas is sufficient to deal with the loss of revenue. The past current earnings were not exactly stellar. I have held 3300 shares from the last split so i get Pi$$ed when i see the incentives based on the merger and not fundamentals. It is alarming to me that the street dosn't buy at these levels with the current rate of return on the dividend. IMHO the dividend is at risk.
I recently went to the Quicken.com web site (its free) and entered NSP; then I clicked GO and on the following screen I clicked on the "Evaluator" tab. Under #3, "Management Performance", I found a picture of deteriorating key financial ratios (ROE, ROI, ROIC) with the recent (5 years or a little more) slippage being markedly greater for NSP than for the utility industry as a whole. The #5 "Intrinsic Value" tab assigns a value to the sum of NSP's parts that is on the order of one third of the current market price. Recent NSP tape action seems to show the unmistakable tracks of institutions bailing out- I hope I'm wrong about that because there are large institutional holdings (NSP was once a rock-solid, guilt-edged utility). Look at the data for ten years ago and draw your own conclusions. For those counting on a high yield going forward, I suggest thinking about what might happen to the final conversion ratio in any merger. NCE shareholders comparing data like these between NCE and NSP might come to seriously question the wisdom of such a business combination. I cannot help but wonder just exactly what achievements during management's tenure merit those generous golden parachutes (of guaranteed cash value, no doubt).
Volume should hit 2 million today with 2 blocks over 200k.
Looks like I won't get any at 16 today. Likely we will need two more Greenspan speeches for that.
I know plan is to maintain healthy utility type dividend for Excel, similar to past payout policies of NSP and NCE. I doubt they would negotiate merger conditions that forced a slashing of the dividend. What exactly would be the point? Howard talked yesterday of financial benefits to shareholders as well as customers.