This current upward movement is scary. History seems to show a run up in price heading into earnings and then a nosedive once announced, whether or not they are good or bad. Anyone else have any thoughts on this?
That was true during '08 because we were working from the "pending recession" script. No matter how good earnings were, the stock always tanked because "future guidance is vague."
Now we may be coming out of a recession the script will reverse. "Earnings really sucked but future guidance is not as bad as we thought it would be." So there will be a tendency for stocks that report bogus earnings to rise anyway.
General Buck, you are correct. In this environment, the OUTLOOK is what matters. Most of the companies reporting have seen light at the end of this tunnel. As investors, those who have been on the sidelines for the last 6 weeks have missed a 35% market move upward. As an investor, a mistake like that is difficult to overcome.