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Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • frankposting frankposting Feb 5, 2013 6:58 PM Flag

    Valuation: OTC

    Pascoe: "With exclusivity for Silenor for the next seven years, we believe that commercial resources can confidently be devoted to Silenor going forward to grow sales of the product."

    I would like to point out that the OTC opportunity has much much more value than the branded Rx Silenor. With the new exclusivity in hand, the OTCization will be taking place ASAP.

    The excellent safety and efficacy profiles make OTC low-dose doxepin a potential blockbuster.

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    • I admit that I never try to totally understand the stock market tricks. But the numbers bothers me.

      Deal: $25M
      Shares Outstanding: 7.19M
      Shares Float: 4.33M
      Shares Fully Diluted: 9M

      Accord with the 9M fully diluted shares, $25M / 9M = $2.78 means the deal gives $2.78 per diluted share. But, how comes the stock trading beyond $3 PPS? Buy-side errors? Sell-side should short the stock to death!

      • 1 Reply to frankposting
      • I don't understand the valuation of the buyout here either. At the annoucement of the deal, it traded around 2.40 which is closer to numbers. Then soon after, some large institutional purchases came in that put it up over 3 bucks, some of the names (see sec reports of large holders) seem to be playing some sort of arbitrage game leading up to the closing of the deal.

        In any event, with the lack of any significant price movement or volume after the actavis settlement, I'm begining to think the settlement was already baked into the buyout price, and was considered as a sure thing when they shopped the company with anyone else prior to PTX.

        Likely all the recent buyers that drove the price up over the 2.40 PPS after buyout announced, as an arbitrage scheme, will vote their large blocks of shares for the merger, so it is a done deal and there aren't enough votes from us little guys (combined) to stop it now.

        I think, unfortunatly, that the SOMX tragedy is over. I think PTX might be able to do something with Silenor. At least I hope.

    • Even counting on PTX's $25M deal (I believe that deal will be overturned), with 7.19M outstanding shares, the deal PPS is $3.48. Thus, buying at current PPS level, buyers will be the winner anyway!