Scenario 1- Management executes an advantageous funded partnership(s) by YE 2012 that secures 2013 cash flow needs. Likely Outcome: Stock pops to high $ 4's/low $ 5's. Additional share appreciation dependent on achieving 2013 clinical milestones. If accomplished stock can organically reach $ 10 by YE 2013. Attaining these milestones will likely attract acquisition interest from several Big Pharma's, a 30%+ purchase premium to then current share price is reasonable.
Scenario 2- Management caves to pressure to secure funding before YE and consummates a partnership that transfers excessive value to the prospective partner. Stock rises to mid to high $ 4's. 2013 YE value will vary widely depending on the degree of shareholders future value being given up to sign a sub-optimal deal.
Scenario 3- No deal is secured in Q-4 2012. Stock drops to mid to high $ 2's. Scenario 3a- An advantageous partnership is realized by mid Q-1 2013. Refer back to scenario 1, albeit with the obvious time shift. Scenario 3b- A secondary in Q-1 2013. Share price resets to mid to high $ 2's based on the dual negatives of dilution and the manifest inability of management to secure funded partnerships.
Between now and YE 2012, realistically Thanksgiving since few "beneficial" deals are concluded during a time period when the larger public partner is concentrating on realizing it's own revenue, and EBITDA, milestones for calendar year 2012, stock is range bound mid $3's to mid $4's.The stock price bias is likely to be increasingly negative, as each day passes between now and Thanksgiving, market anxiety about securing funding will marginally increase. please witness the eroding technicals. MACD declining with 9 crossing 12/26 early October, EMA declining 5 day EMA below 13 day EMA since October 19.
This is just one perspective, I welcome other thoughtful analysis.
Scenario 2- Management caves to pressure to secure funding before YE and consummates a partnership that transfers excessive value to the prospective partner. Stock rises to mid to high $ 4's. 2013 YE value will vary widely depending on the degree of shareholders future value being given up to sign a sub-optimal deal ***I agree with you EYES, I have been watching the Volumn today,and it is 5x Normal.Somebody is really buying up those new shares.I think you hit the nail on the head.We will soon learn who the new Partnership is with,and they will be in the drivers seat.
***Management caves to pressure to secure funding before YE***
beach, help me out here, who is putting the pressure on? The potential partner? Management getting nervous with low balance sheet? Deal being cut? I sell bulldozers, this kind of stuff sometimes is bewildering.
On November 2, I outlined several financing scenarios. We now have scenario 3, and as predicted "Share price resets to mid to high $ 2's based on the dual negatives of dilution and the manifest inability of management to secure funded partnerships". The immediate pressure is off to secure badly needed near term financing, albeit achieved in a way dilutive to shareholders. The next question that will determine the real opportunity for the company is the ability to secure several partnerships, in Q-1 2013, that will add longer term financing, provide for broader distribution, and a offer a potential exit strategy through M&A. Equally importantly is executing on clinical and commercial milestones. If these twin objectives are achieved the valuations outlined in scenario 1"Stock pops to high $ 4's/low $ 5's. Additional share appreciation dependent on achieving 2013 clinical milestones. If accomplished stock can organically reach $ 10 by YE 2013. Attaining these milestones will likely attract acquisition interest from several Big Pharma's, a 30%+ purchase premium to then current share price is reasonable.
I wonder if the potential partners look at the story telling verbal that flows from the mouths of these guys and wonders"DO I WANNA DO BUSINESS WITH THESE PEOPLE" I realize for some it's all about the money but you might want to reconsider your position when doing business with sharks,
A scenario for every day of the week. Things are what they are not what you hope they will be. For me three years of broken promises and on execution. A pathetic pps and victories for the shorts, the only ones making money. Wish this were not the case but it is what it is and the stock drops every day due to management's inability to execute. Yes 7 deals my a.. One very very very close and a double down fro dean. Pathetic, all you pumpers
could it be that CC & co were too greedy with conditions with prospective partners and pissed them off? this is a risk when insiders don't own much except free shares...they don't always act in the interest of shareholders...
I understand and feel your frustration. Creating value for shareholders, now is all about management meeting partnership, commercial, clinical, and cash management milestones. It is important that stockholders proactively hold management accountable for articulating very specific Q by Q 2013 milestones in each of these four areas. The Board of Directors should set management compensation (quarterly bonus and stock compensation) exclusively on meeting these specific targets. I recently had the privilege to serve shareholders, as CEO, for 13 years of a Silicon Valley company, and had very real experience with setting Board approved targets that were paid out quarterly. The Board Members had 100%, CEO 70%, Officers 50%, management director levels 30%, and everyone else 15-25% ( based on level ), of total compensation " at risk " based on milestone attainment. This focused all levels of management on meeting very specific and measurable value creating targets, and was the primary content in the operations section of the Board meetings. Those members of the management team who failed to perform usually elected to leave because the " fixed " compensation was inadequate to support their lifestyles if the " at risk " portion could not be realized. Net effect, close alignment between shareholder interests and management/team members. I suggest, if you concur, communicating directly to the Board of Directors our expectation that the Compensation Discussion and Analysis section of the 10K be guided by achieving this alignment of interests