Let's just have a little hypothetical fun.
Jeremy Richards states, "In my opinion, a $15 to $20 per share buyout could easily happen for KERX next year." This is a huge jump in price compared to where KERX is at now and suggests either 1) KERX will jump in value as we approach PIII results 2) a 200-400% premium will be paid for KERX shares, which seems awfully high compared to most buyouts.
It's all our hopes that KERX rises higher (and AEZS could be the trigger, or the beneficiary, of such a rise) next year as results-season draws near. But what happens when/if it's bought out?
My personal prediction for AEZS's future PPS:
Q1/2012 $7~15 if positive results of X-PECT announced;
Q2/2012 $15~20 if KERX bought out before NDA;
Q2/2012 $20~22 if Peri's NDA announced;
Q4/2012 $25~30 if Peri approved by FDA;
Bonus 1: + $1~2 with a Big-Pharm partnering in AEZS108 phase III trials (Q4/2011);
Bonus 2: + $5 if P+CAB OS in phase III > 10 months (Q1/2012);
Bonus 3: + $5 with MM phase III positive results announced (Q3/2012);
Bonus 4: + $2 with AEZS130 approved by FDA (2012);
Bonus 5: + $5 with Peri approved in Europe (Q1/2013);
And more and more beyond 2013…
Don’t be afraid of what they said on the street while they are afraid of something or try to do something. AEZS with strong pipeline is a stock for long-term investment at current low PPS level.
I don't think your numbers, or others here, are necessarily bad, or good, I believe we need some assumptions which they're bd on.
For instance, if KERX is purchase for $10 a share, I believe that sets a price that AEZS should move to immediately, if it's $25 a share, that's a very different price. While I believe in time AEZS will have a market cap that's far bigger then KERX's buy out price market cap, I believe at the time of a buyout AEZS's market cap ought to be somewhere between 70% and 100% of KERX's. Some might disagree saying it might be closer to 50%, I could live with that, but frankly believe it wouldn't be long before investors recognized that the buyout of KERX means Perifosine just got a huge endorcemtent and AEZS is where your money should be. In fact, if KERX investors are given the choice between taking cash, or converting their shares to the acquiring Pharma's stock, I suspect many will take the cash and roll it right into AEZS. I suspect they'll be a tremendous runup in the price of AEZS as soon as investors can put their hands on the buyout money.
If I were KERX I wouldn't be happy with a buyout under about $20, and really believe it's worth far more then that. Why? What could North American sales of Perifosine be. In colon cancer I suspect it would approach being a blockbuster, but they're already testing in others, and could add several more once sales fund the additional trials. Sales in the billions annually equate to earnings in the hundreds of millions to perhaps a billion. I know big Pharma tries to buy drugs for a song, but a drug concluding Phase III Trials ought to be worth at least what's anticipated in sales over a few year after sales have matured. Besides, they're not buying just the drug, they're buying the company, and the company does have other promising drugs in development. As a shareholder, I'd be unhappy with anything under $20 and really believe it ought to be worth more.
If KERX is bought for $20, AEZS should immediately go to something over $10.
To me it seems illogical that both companies are not bought out at the same time. Its anyway pocket change for the big pharmas compared to what they get. If they are smar they make a bid now but I hope the companies KERX/AEZS uses common sense and waits out the trials. The risk of not beeing approved are pretty slim at this time.
I own both and will stay the course until the facts are due-
AEZS pps would increase, depending on who the partner/purchaser is. Remember, AEZS gets at least 10% royalties on net sales, so a big partner/purchaser with a good sales force means more $$ for AEZS.
That, plus I'm sure AEZS would trade higher based on buy out theories. Who knows where the pps would be if and when KERX is bought out.
A KERX buyout would be undoubtedly a huge plus for AEZS though.
Don't forget the large amount of shorts could benefit the longs at approval time. We could blast off to the moon for a short period of time because a short squeeze could be triggered. I would hate to be short at that time. IMHO the shorts will loose more on paper than the longs have recently. I believe that X-PECT will be a successful trial in phase 3 $ have positve results that lead to an FDA approval.