You are looking at maximum pain... I am talking about current pain which calculates only using options traded from the prior exp. Ie dec. Max pain for Jan is totally contaminated because it's a leap.... Heck It contains 100 Jan 2011 5.00 put that I wrote for 50c way back when. Again 50 is based on only 1 weeks worth of data. The number will change but as of today there is still a positive bias.
No, never mention 40 last week. You are right regarding the data, we only had a weeks worth. But the bias is to the upside. The setup is for a down week next week where a lot of people will be suck in to buy puts. But by jan op exp with earnings around the corner... A run above 50 is almost a given. It's kind of like setting a point spread for the superbowl. Set lvs at 45 just favors the bulls too much.