RBC Capital Markets has the details: Gaming revenues excluding electronic table games for the first 24 days of February increased 12.2% over the prior year. This is up nicely from the 1.8% increase in the monthly run rate realized up to the Chinese New Year holiday. Average daily win rate broke the HK$1B mark for the first time since October, coming in at HK$1.1B. While such a large increase would normally mean table win rates were abnormally high, our channel checks suggest the driver was larger than expected VIP and premium mass volumes.
MBA, thanks for posting this. But let's all be honest, the analysts are pulling these numbers out of their posteriors. First they pulled out low numbers for the LNY period -- which was all a lot of bull -- and now they are pulling out bigger numbers for the month-to-date.
The only reality is this: on 1 March we'll see real data and it will be clear that Feb 2013 will be a huge improvement over Feb 2012, because this year we include the LNY period, we also have more tables and activity in Macau (esp LVS) and we have another year of baseline growth.
The analysts have really done a disservice to LVS, all this month, with their "information". But I am looking for the fundamental strength of this company's performance to win out and balloon the share price into the 60s, very soon now. My personal price target is the 60s by March.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree w you that a healthy dose of skepticism is needed when reviewing the analysts channel checks and estimations. The recent turnaround from a relatively flat month to a 12% return YOY for Feb in GGR is encouraging though to say the least.
I also want to stress to everyone and I know I am stating e obvious, but the fact that there are many of us posting any and all gaming and (LVS specific) information that we find online is a very positive thing for this board.
We need to continue to filter out the Spammers, agree to disagree (more often than not) with the dissenters and try to use this board positively to the best of our ability.
I know it is tough at times because of both the format and those that are dead set on ruining the board experience for everyone. I am still interested in being a viable member of this board and making money w the other member where that have spent countless hours and energy trying to do the same.
Nice note Mbab! Thank you for your great flow of relevant comments and facts. I read a note from Merrill put out last week that commented that a huge number of Chinese VIP's spent the holiday at MBS. This could lead to a double barrel explosion in earnings for LVS. We have not had a kick #$%$ quarter with both Macau and Singapore firing on all cylinders at the same time in some time.
Just call me SGT Joe Friday of Dragnet fame... "Just the facts, Ma'am." Besides, Spok and others are so much better at interpreting and expounding regarding those facts, that I would rather leave the advising to them.
WillNYNY, you're right -- recently, the LVS portfolio has worked nicely, with Macau offsetting any MBS weakness in one quarter, and vice versa in other quarters. So, if we can get both cylinders to fire at the same time, we might have an incredible result for 1Q2013. (And, of course, the tendency is to mainly write off Las Vegas and assume it doesn't matter, but if it could have a more positive result, rather than providing drag for the overall net, would be even sweeter!)
Sentiment: Strong Buy