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Las Vegas Sands Corp. Message Board

  • bjspokanimal bjspokanimal Mar 5, 2013 4:43 PM Flag

    For Those who are Grieving Over China's Feb. PMI Data...

    ... which dropped from 50.4 to 50.1 YOY in February...

    ... remember that Lunar New Year is a significant depressant for PMI. PMI is a manufacturing metric and many Chinese are in Macau gambling while factory activity wanes during the period.

    It's generally wise to add .75 to 1.0 to PMI to account for a LNY that falls in a different month than it did in the prior year.


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    • Mar 5, 2013 5:15 PM Flag

      I thought I had read that they attempt to adjust for CNY although it boggles the imagination to think how you could make such an adjustment. That said, cumulatively, Macau GGR is up 9.4% so far this year and that's with one less day in February.

      50.4 is still expanding and as you pointed out, expanding during CNY and that's combined with "normalized" cumulative GGR in the low double-digits and then we have 200 more tables and then the mass. Oh the humanity! I wish there was a short position in LVS, but no squeeze for us I'm afraid. I'll post my table count this week and if my numbers are correct, there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to continue to increase our market share, per my "back of the napkin calculation", I see a 26% possible share.


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks! Several have brought that up but didn't calculate how much it could affect PMI. Thanks!

      • 1 Reply to dabahr2001
      • Yeah, there are many ways to "normalize" and break things down to get a truer picture of things. Being a hopeless analytic may cause my looker to roll her eyes, but it does help to granularize things.

        Same thing with LNY itself. The days leading up to LNY tend to be some of the slowest days of the entire year in macau... and we had 10 of them packed into early February. Likewise, since LNY itself fell on Sunday, that tends to trash the weekend for gaming since time spent "arriving" is not typically time spent "gambling". That weekend is further exacerbated by the fact that VIP punters wouldn't likely touch it with a 10-meter cattleprod.

        Similarly, VIP tends to pick up once the LNY crowds dispurse, but there were barely 11 days for that to happen and there was 1 less day given that last year was leap year.

        To fully appreciate this, imagine if Lunar New Year had fallen on February 2nd instead of February 10th. In such a scenario, the "lull" ahead of LNY would have been fully absorbed by JANUARY, the mass market masses would have spent sunday queuing up at the gaming tables instead of cheking into their hotels, and the post LNY VIP traffic would have had a full 18 days in february to enjoy the post-LNY trappings of their favorite suite. Such a shift in LNY could have easily added a lot of percentage points to the YOY gaming revenue number for February.


50.33-0.43(-0.85%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT