March casino revenue to grow 16-28 percent: BofA
Bank of America has boosted its Macau’s gross gaming revenue estimate for March from MOP28 billion (US$3.5 billion) to up to MOP32 billion.
Analyst Merrill Lynch believes Macau gross gaming revenue for March is on track to grow between 16 and 28 percent year-on-year, instead of the prior 12 percent prediction.
According to the bank’s analyst, the city’s casinos will generate total revenue in the range of MOP29 to 32 billion for this month, based on the run rate in the first 10 days.
Wells Fargo has also adjusted their earnings estimates for three Macau casino operators to account for the first part of 2013.
The investment bank lifted its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation) estimates for Sands China Ltd and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd – Sands for strong VIP and Melco Crown for better than expected VIP and mass revenues.
Wells Fargo has increased Sands China’s EBITDA by seven percent for the first quarter of this year, up from US$572 million to US$613 million.
Melco Crown’s Macau property EBITDA estimate was lifted by four percent from US$262 million to US$271 million.
On the other hand, the bank has reduced Wynn Macau Ltd’s first quarter EBITDA by three percent, from US$314 million to US$305 million.
Look like the trend is upward for daily GGR. Last year, Macau didn't have even 900M a day but now it seems a possible and sustainable 1000M a day.
Date Daily GGR Million Pacata
It was just January when our good Knight was an outlier in predicting 2013 Macau GGR to increase by 16% from the consensus 12%.
I'm still a little confounded by the 10 day channel check and really can't believe it's attributable to displaced CNY VIP. And, given the propensity for the news to sell doom and gloom, I'm actually worried this is a transitory bump and all the revenue/income estimate markups will have to be adjusted downward making a fantastic 16% YOY GGR increase look like a disappointment. Possibly, I'm being silly, like being negative over too many customers.