Casinos in Macau are reporting their strongest levels of VIP gambler growth in over a year. Last week, J.P. Morgan analyst Kenneth Fong estimated gross gaming revenue in March would come in at MOP 29.4b (US $3.67b), which would be a new monthly revenue record. Now, based on run rates over the week ending March 17, Fong suggests GGR could hit MOP 31.2b, which would represent a whopping 25% over March 2012, thanks to 15% to 20% growth in the VIP sector, “the strongest since the first quarter 2012.”
Sterne Agee’s David Bain, whose GGR predictions last week were below Fong’s, now seems intent on outdoing Fong’s optimism. Bain says the GGR run-rate through March 17 is up 32% to MOP 33.3b. As such, Bain has revised its year-on-year monthly growth estimate from 14% to 20%, with total GGR of MOP 30b, which would be 6% higher than the all-time monthly revenue tally set in December 2012. The enthusiasm appears universal: RBC Capital Markets’ John Kempf says March growth will come in at 21% while Wells Fargo’s Cameron McKnight puts the number between 19% and 24%.
Seems everybody in Macau’s gaming industry has reason to smile, that is, unless you’re a croupier. According to the Macau Employee Confidence and Satisfaction Index (MECSI) 2013 survey, croupiers are the least jolly of all employees working in Macau’s gaming industry. The survey queried 1,026 employees on their job satisfaction and their overall confidence in their employment situation, the companies they work for and their general career development. All told, the confidence metric was down 0.3 basis points to 3.13 (out of five) while the satisfaction meter was down 0.3 basis points to 3.29. Both of these figures are within the survey’s ranking of ‘stable.’
Nearly a third (306) of respondents worked within Macau’s gaming industry, and despite the happy faces on the casinos’ balance sheets, casino employees recorded slightly lower results than their non-casino brethren on both the confidence and satisfaction levels (3.07 and 3.10 respectively for gaming employees, 3.15 and 3.37 for non-gaming). Peeling the casino worker onion a little more reveals that croupiers’ average ratings were lowest of all (3.05 and 3.02). However, before anyone starts installing Foxconn-style suicide-prevention netting, it should be noted that when it comes to salary satisfaction, croupiers outscore even non-casino employees. So there… Dealing with gamblers can be a high-stress job, but the danger pay apparently makes up for occasionally being on the wrong end of the odd stream of profanities.
listening to the analyst week to week flip from "oh no the last 3 days were slow" to "yippee it looks like record revenue" is just sad isn't it? Amusing, but sad nonetheless. Glad most here are looking at the next 2-3-4 years as opposed to what's going on hour to hour.
When you tell people these revenue numbers, it helps to put it in perspective by remembering:
Nevada, all 110,000 sq. miles of it with 256 casino's generated about 10.8 billion last year
Macau's whopping 11 sq. miles, with what....36 casino's approaching 4 billion a month, well over 40 billion a year! I sent that via email the other day to somebody and they told me I left the decimal out, didn't I mean 4.0 billion? HA!
Oh yeah, then there's Singapore with 2 casino's hauling in about 6 billion a year
For those that truly been here since the 2009 bottom, I honestly think none of us will EVER be this right again in our lifetime on any other investment. So much to come......I don't really pay LVS or WYNN much attention anymore, more focused on the media sector! Done well with CBS, LGF, and STRZA.....anybody else here interested in media? Just curious, what other area's do some of you guys get into and why? I been in mostly media and gaming since the early 90's. I really believe the only way to get anywhere with investing is to learn 1 or 2 industries a to z and remember you have to bet big to win big. Not a big believer in diversification.
Online gaming is the next big thing I think....right now, its early so I'm just watching the players position. A lot like watching the horses get into the starting gate!! Was involved in CZR and PYGMF until recently, decided to watch them jockey for a while.
NCAA picks anybody? I'm picking Miami to win it all. I was a the ACC final last Sunday, Miami is a closer. They are calm, cool, and collected.