Hong Kong Stocks to Double by End 2015: Morgan Stanley : 5/20/2013
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng stock index may be one of Asia's laggards, but Morgan Stanley reckons the market is poised to more than double to 50,000 by the end of 2015 on the back of ample liquidity in global markets.
The Hang Seng has gained about 4 percent so far this year and hit its highest level since early February on Monday, playing catch-up with gains in global markets following a holiday on Friday. Still, the gains pale in comparison to the 45 percent jump in Japan's Nikkei and double-digit increases seen in other Asian markets such as Australia or in Southeast Asia.
That underperformance has not swayed Morgan Stanley's chief Asia and emerging market equity strategist, Jonathan Garner, from changing his bullish call for the Hang Seng to hit 50,000 in 2015.
"These peaks in the Hang Seng tend to happen every six to eight years and they tend to happen when global growth is accelerating, [and] when liquidity is still full on from the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve], the BOJ [Bank of Japan]," Garner told CNBC's "The Call" on Monday.
"And it also happens when we start from relatively low valuations, which is where we are right now," he added.
Mike Clarke | AFP | Getty Images
The Hang Seng is one of the cheapest equity markets in Asia, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 11 compared with just under 24 for the Nikkei and around 17 for Taiwan stocks.
It rose to 23,512 on Monday, its highest level in almost four months.
I agree. The Chinese bourses are among the cheapest in Asia and have the most upside.
Capital investment is strong in E. Asia but markets are more subdued...
... very different from the U.S., where capital investment has dried up under current anti-business leadership, but the markets are strong due to good corporate earnings, deficit spending and the Fed's money printing.