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Renren Inc. Message Board

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  • ltbhdollars ltbhdollars Mar 4, 2005 5:18 PM Flag

    Hey Bud, got a Dollar?


    First a reminder for those that may not be familiar ... I post my choices and reasonings without wishing to influience your investmenet choices nor wishing to cause debate. Simply as information that may cause you to be exposed and spurred to research new horizons ... not necessarilly focuing on specific stocks.

    Most US royalty trust, pipeline and associated stocks are partnerships and I do not knowingly do such, thereby avoiding their multiple tax headaches. Their dividends tend to fluctuate very wildly in "normal" times ... not dependable/stable. Most have clauses that manditorially close out the trust and lower prices would force same on a number of them. The profit split structure is quite unfavorable on some such that the unitholder pays costs yet does not share in increased profits above a point or does not receive payment below certain points.

    These are a few of the reasons I stay away from them, do not follow them and therefore plead ignorance on the specific merits of BPT.

    RB (raging bull is just another site)

    With the anticipated announcement nearing, the noise level has increased significantly as has volume of posts, however if you go back a month or so (alot of posts) and read through em, you will also run across a number of important and useful posts. I do not know of an easy out.

    As to EAD, I do not like bonds or anything to do with such, never have but EAD is reasonably liquid and have a small position as a supplement to my "financial" type holdings of IMH, NFI, BTO ... long term, income holding. I look at it as a spoonful of codliver oil ... distasteful medicine neccesary for folio health (I hope).

    Guess may have missed your other message, will go back and look ... alot more activity here lately on topics am not interested so may have skimmed over it.

    As to investment advisors, never met one I would trust with my money but attempt to let folks know THEY are responsible for their decisions and THEY need to be proactive ... not just jump blindly into what some faceless nameless internet entity says is good.

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    • Sometime, when you decide you are serious about the energy sector and also are willing to spend some time on the learning curve ... will give you info to sign up for a free weekly newsletter that although free and also a newsletter is NOT a stock pumping platform and is extremely well written.

      It can run from 8 to 15 pages (weekly) and focuses on in depth discussion of various aspects of the nuts and bolts of the energy sector, complete with links to references, maps, drawings etc.


      PS Went back and found your post:

      1) O&G is place to be ... guessing what the $ value at any point in time is a fools game (I believe) and I chose not to knowingly be such (even though hindsight shows I have been so at points in my life). I am content knowing that the worlds absolute supply continues to dwindle, new discoveries continue to be harder to find and smaller in size while the demand for such is ever increasing.

      NOTE: I guess for shake of accuracy I should modify above to say: commodities are the place to be and I have chosen energy due to its central role in use of all the others.

      2) Qatar has just inked billions in contracts with several majors for GTL (gas to liquids) facilities ... all in last week or so, google search should find ... believe the lions share went to EXXON and Sasoil (the technology partner) Although not involved in Qatar, RTK (I own) happens to be a CTL GTL enterprise ... company with very interesting story.

      3) The interesting possibilites I have already tried to outline in my prior departing income/new horizons posts: the supposedly next/last oil sweet spot on the globe (GOG area) = ERHE (speculative) and TGA currently producing in Yemen, pipeline to go online in June that will increase CF ~50% and recently awarded a huge block in Egypt; alternate fuel, CTL GTL technology = RTK (speculative) see both RB and Y for posts; unconventional gas ala CBM (Coal Bed Methane) = SMEFF (speculative) huge leases in "worlds" thickest coal seams.

      The only other really interesting (to me) area is LNG (Liquid Natural Gas, very very cold) and I find that the more solid candidates have already run to far for me and the others pose to much risk and all are veryyyy long term investments .. I have passed at this point.

      These are all small growth stories with news pending. As such they are volitile, speculative and subject to languishing if news is slow. Note that SMEFF has alot on its plate over the next 4-6 weeks that can drive its pps either way. Each of these stocks also has history that should be researched and understood .. too much to attempt to post.

      As a side note for a more cautious approach to CBM, APFRF/AY.UN is a Canadian O&G Royalty Trust with monthly payments of .16C (~16.35% yield) that has CBM holdings and is just now starting to add to bottom line as they begin producing.

      They have a small holding in the US Powder River Basin that are wet and require dewatering as well as Canadian Horseshoe Canyon plays that are dry and go straight to production.

      In closing; money will always be needed and consequently next to commodities, the financial sector will always be required whether the sector is popular at the moment or not. Therefore my choices of BTO, EAD, IMH, NFI in my broad definition of this sector ... which as always needs to be fine tuned for each individuals tastes.

      I trust I have been long winded enough to sustain you until next time, lol.


      • 2 Replies to ltbhdollars
      • never too long winded for me.......(blush)

        have thought for some time the LNG play would be desirable if the 'ifs and and buts' were in place........

        still recall youth, when saw hundreds if not thousands of flames burning off the gas when traveling out west......assume many countries doing same if not used else where.......

        have no idea where technology is on the LNG.....but have felt for some time....must be opportunity out there somewhere....tried to follow a little when was a hot topic.....but got involved and lost track of......

        though margin and current holdings limit my seriousness for going further into the O & G......sincerely hope that you will continue to post on such............hate being totally ignorant...and your posts are enlightning.....

        also do know that others who read here (but seldom post) are into canroyals...thus can also benefit from your posts.......

        will also add, cap would never own a CEFJ (ie EAD)..says it gives him hives...luckily my experience so far has been dollars rather than hives...............though can easily understand the view of others on such.....

        just opinions and sincerely...tug.....

      • Tug

        Unsure what you are referencing
        >>if time permits, would appreciate if you looked at BPT...especially lower part of page 10 of both the 9/30/04 & 6/30/04 periods<<

        If you mean: >>As long as the Company�s average daily net production from the Prudhoe Bay Unit exceeds 90,000 barrels, which the Company currently projects will continue until the year 2013, the only factors affecting the Trust�s revenues and distributions to Unit holders are changes in WTI Prices, scheduled annual increases in Chargeable Costs, changes in the Consumer Price Index, changes in Production Taxes and changes in the expenses of the Trust.<<

        Then without further digging, I would believe this is a form of what I refenced in prior parts .. IE if income, production or other specific stipulations are not met or exceeded the trust dissolves. THIS IS AN EDUCATED GUESS .. without benefit of futher research.

        The disolution ability and uncertainty this type of condition embodies kept me from entering what turned out to be a very hot coal trust (Fording Coal) which IIRC came very close to disolution due to production-pricing-profit type clauses. The tripling of coal prices in very compressed time frame saved it and turned a toad into a prince.

        As previously stated, also one of many reason I stay clear of the US royalty trusts. IMHO many more traps, inconveniences and instability than their north of the border counterparts and as a generic statement, I certainly do not wish to be driven to filing state returns in each state of operation. I also like investments that I can place in either taxable or IRA acounts .. just another reason I stay away from partnerships ala UBTI.

        Sorry that I may not have been of assistance here.


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