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JAVELIN Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

  • smearjob smearjob Aug 23, 2013 10:34 AM Flag

    Bulldog will create shareholder value.


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    • Smear,
      If you do the math and model out the difference in your total value in JMI over say 20 years... you would see that this drop, in conjunction with continuing high dividends from the spreads already inked in the books, is better than if share price were to rise 5% due to some power play by bulldog investors.

      At least when I crunch my numbers and take a look at scenarios such as...

      15% yield for first year, 14.75% yield for second year, 14.5% yield for 3rd year... 10.25% yield in 20th year while the share price also drops from $12 in year 1 to say $10 in year 20... you come out so much further ahead than if you were to experience a 5% or 10% boost in short term market value.

      The main reason for this is the power of compounding interest. IF you can collect shares now at these market prices with dividend yields which support a $24 market price if 10% discounted cash flow was used as an investors demanded rate... you come out sooooooo much further ahead through accumulation. Granted, any forecasted model can be changed to suit your particular expectations, like mine does, but I am pretty conservative in my modeling.

      Just saying, careful what you wish for, JMI has done nothing wrong, in fact their loading up on mbs during these times with durations that react negatively to 10 year interest rate yields increasing is without a doubt the best thing for me.

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