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Crocs, Inc. Message Board

  • jwm1031 jwm1031 Feb 19, 2013 12:08 PM Flag

    Earnings / Reading between the lines

    First, I'm holding in my IRA but have sold all of my personal position. Here's why:

    1. The company reiterated gross revenues for 4th quarter but did not say anything about earnings, only saying that it was a tough environment in 4th quarter.
    2. I'm betting that they miss earnings by a penny or two. They were very clear that their revenue reiteration did not refer to earnings.
    3. I think the backlog and prospects for 2nd and 3rd quarter will be OK. They have told us there is a hit to earnings for the year due to their installation of new systems.
    4. I think CROX sells off initially after the earnings call but then I think it goes higher in the next few weeks. I've held too many times only to experience the sharp drop that takes me the rest of the quarter to get even on by trading out of it. If I'm wrong and it goes up that's great because I'm long in my IRA. If it goes down then I'll buy. Long term I think it is a winner but I've been stung too many times on earning days. Just my two cents. GLTA

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    • You COULD be right, but on the other hand, they set expectations low with a call for $0.00 in earnings for the quarter....they always beaten expectations before (according to the Motley Fool article shown of Feb 16th) and i expect they will again by a penny or two....down perhaps the next day, but then off to the races...

    • As we all have been. I'm buying again today as I only have 4,010 shares and I expect better than a $4.00 bump the day after.

      • 1 Reply to jonherrell
      • I actually think we'll see a bigger drop, so I bought 200 $14 strike puts @ $.54 today - $10K. The thing about the "warning" was, it would have been unnecessary had there not been other issues impacting both margins and the outlook (which will drive the PPS after earnings). If CROX is going to miss their Income target, and I believe they will, they may opt to throw other charges in to clean up the balance sheet - inventory write-downs being the big one that could whack this. I just sense that there is more bad news that they didn't talk about, but plausibly/arguably addressed with that weird warning. We may find out what "difficult" really translates to tomorrrow night.

        I spend a ton of time on eBay, and don't see product selling at close to the SALE price on the Crocs website for legacy stuff, and some more recent items.

        There appears to be quite alot of inventory for sale on the Crocs website, some newer styles, I could be wrong on that since I don't spend much time there. Also, just because a style is available on sale, doesn't mean there is material over-inventory in the warehouse. Still, somewhat concerning to page down through it all.

        When Crocs was trading at $1.30/share (Jonherrell, do I recall you from those days, we were both in with both feet!), Crocs had like 4 or 5 styles in the top 5 sellers on Amazon. Now, I think only 1!

        Best of luck to everyone here For what it's worth, I own about 15 pairs of Crocs and love every one. Convinced they solved my knee issues and don't care what my kids think. The best thing, btw, about being a CROX investor, for the longs, as this will likely be the #1 Kids shoe for years, and should be.

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