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Discovery Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • dutchboyprint dutchboyprint Feb 6, 2013 9:55 PM Flag

    Okay boys and girls...

    Okay boys and girls. We are coming up on six weeks since the big BOD and CEO change outs.

    If Amick was relieved because he didn't want to go along with an active and eminent partnership or sale, the time for it to have finalized is just about over. So I think I can scratch that off my list.

    That pretty much just leaves Amick was relieved (1) because he "irritated" some the institutions and some of the BOD through failure or arrogance or a "distasteful" embarrassing event or whatever, or (2) he .... sorry, I can't think of another reason for them to flush him before launch.....

    We are left with the question... what will be DSCO's next move?

    Launch or no launch, they need money by June at the latest (cash on hand falls below accounts payable in June... technically broke) Prudence dictates doing something about that before June, and DSCO has always been prudent when it comes to grabbing cash.

    There has been zero said about the Surfaxin launch since late October. We know the Afectair launch was botched (the whole "launch in 4th qtr. ,,,. launch in 200 accounts ... launch in 30 accounts... constantly lowering and moving back the goals). Note that DSCO never said anything about these lowering and moving goals until they had to because the time had expired and it was time to announce the actual event. Only then were we told there were problems and delays.

    Note also that we have been told zip about the Surfaxin launch reset... but Surfaxin's "time" hasn't expired yet. I got a gut feeling that come late April there will be some announcement of a further delay... probably blamed on the FDA.

    So, based on this I expect dilution BEFORE the launch.. sometime between now and mid to late March... during the run up in price in anticipation of the launch... Bang - shot down with a dilution.... then the delay can be announced in April, but DSCO will not care by that point... they will already have the dilution money in the bank... they won't need or care about shareholders until Fall 2013 when they will want more shares and bigger bonus pools approved at the Annual Meeting... and Fall 2013 is long long ways away. Most of you will have been flushed out of the system by then anyway....

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    • Seems there is value here - and what about possible Europe sales ?

      • 1 Reply to gtucker2
      • European sales potential is company estimated at one half potential US sales - whatever that is.

        DSCO applied for EMEA approval before - (2005? 2006?). They withdrew their application at the time of the batch failures in 2006 and blamed it on those failures. Unfortunately, the EMEA, unlike the FDA, publishes an "after the fact" summary of all application reviews - even those withdrawn. Turns out DSCO withdrew their application just ahead of a denial decision. Seems DSCO had approached the EMEA before about what they wanted to see in a clinical trial. The EMEA told them, but DSCO did not run their two Phase III trials that way. The FDA wanted a different set of criteria, and instead of running one for the FDA and one for the EMEA, DSCO ran them both the FDA way. Consequently, the EMEA did not like getting an application that failed to address their previous guidance and was set to deny because of a lack of objective evidence in the areas they wanted. Instead, DSCO withdrew the application...and looked like fools and liars for saying it was because of the batch failures unrelated tom the european submission.

        What does this mean? Well, if DSCO wants to go back to the EMEA, it would seem they need to back up and run some more Phase 3 clinical trials the way the Europeans asked them to a decade ago. Funny that in the ensuing 7 years, DSCO has not seen fit to do that... they just keep waving the European flag without ever actually doing anything. They have been "saying" they were going to go after Europe since 2006... but never did. It does help sell the stock though.

    • I believe it will be a buy out this time. Dsco being shopped to the big boys. CFO took over CEO role and retained CFO responsibilities. New board member is a vc with a history of selling assets.

      • 1 Reply to mulat6821
      • Both are valid points.
        Question: would you change your mind if, say, Tattory were promoted to CFO? He has been VP of Finance and Principal Accounting Officer for some time (couple of years). I don't know why the company specifically set up Cooper as CFO but not as PAC also.


        How long a time period would you wait for such a sale/buyout? I figured 6 weeks for an sale/buyout if the negotiations had started and been progressing before Amick was terminated. Are you assuming that negotiations had not begun when Amick left?

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