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Discovery Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • trinibud081390 trinibud081390 Sep 12, 2013 8:10 AM Flag

    Dutch have always been right about DSCO, but this time he could be wrong.

    Buying DSCO have always been a gamble, but this time the odds are in longs favour.

    Wouldn't buy all at ounce, just nibble as time goes along.

    Place your bet and pray...

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    • I was wondering if you could tell what the date of the announcement will be?

    • Well if u bought in at 1.60-180 your risk is low. A go ahead from the FDA will propel dsco to 5.00 by years end. Definitely 3.00 upon news release. I have traded dsco often and made a good return listening to dutch. I think this time he is wrong. We will know momentarily...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to leftyspade
      • A short term pop on approval yes. But you better have your finger on the sell order that day because it won't last long. After the last approval peak it dropped about 35% in two weeks. It barely hit $4 last time, what makes you think it will do $5 this time? This is such an awful company to try and make money on. I have been out for years and will think about getting back in when they progress the Aerosurf line. So many more exciting companies in the biotech arena than this one. Go make some real money on CLDX ECYT APPY and come back to this one in a few years.

    • Normally I wouldn't reply. Sold all the DSCO I bought 8/23 on 9/9. I just check in - looking for another good entry point. But let's follow Trini's thought about DSCO's chances and what that might mean,,,,,

      I place DSCO's chances at a "yes" as 50-50. Yeah, that's a cop out on a binary yes-no event, but that's my thoughts. But what happens under each of those circumstances?

      Yes - DSCO immediately pops.... big time. But I believe the fall will quickly follow as potential new investors start actually looking at what the ability to sell Surfaxin really means.... A small "sale" of some product before 12/31 to trigger the next $20million loan followed by a big dilution (because the $20MM doesn't cover DSCO's nut for even 6 months)... followed by 6 months of giving the drug away to "generate user experience" followed by a slow ramp up over the following 4 to 7 years... at which point the drug revenues have matured - BUT still don't cover DSCO's expenses. The above is not a guess... it is DSCO's stated plan... available to anyone who bothers to read the files.
      So - pop to flop.
      If you don't already own it the evening before the announcement - you are out.
      Worse - if you buy it to hold as it peaks you will lose big time.
      So to win, you have to take the risk of holding this dog.

      What if it's "No" - again, if you own it the evening before the announcement - you cannot get out fast enough. The company will NOT receive the next $20MM loan, they will either fold, sell out to big pharma for pennies, or dilute everyone into oblivion as in the past. Then announce they will continue the effort with Aero... in about 4 years....

      I don't like even odds. I can get better at the craps tables.I'll take mine in smaller 10, 15 or 25% bites where the odds are much better... and stay safer. The day of the announcement I plan to be on the sidelines. That last 8/23 - 9/9 trade for me was probably the last until Nov or Dec.
      Like I said, just checking in

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