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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

  • old_guy_gte old_guy_gte Jul 23, 2006 3:04 PM Flag

    Technical comments for steve

    You may have a good price below $20. I think you may see $30 by the end of '06.
    But I sold 2/3rds of my holdings on May 10 and do not desire to get fully invested again until I am sure it is the low or the trend has definately turned up. Presently the trend is down, with no sign that it has bottomed and definately no sign it has started an up trend. I do not want to lose back the money I gained from Cramer's timely tout at the high.
    The gap up out of the '04 - '05 base-building was on 1/20/'06. That was from a low $21 number to a high $22 number. That just got filled in on Friday. All week the ACO price was stabilised @ the moving average and gapped down below the lower Bolinger Ban, stayed below all day and closed up to just over the lower band. Today (it could be different if it closes above the gap on Monday) the gap may be a breakaway gap on the downside. That could mean much lower prices. I prefer to wait and see. If it closes the gap (over $24) on Monday or Tuesday at the latest (it needs to be speedy) you could interpret Froday's activity as a "bear trap." Normally these only move one box on the point and figure chart into the sell signal and promptly reverse. Here the tripple bottom sell signal is already 5 full boxes long. Friday the price stopped going down exactly at a trend line drawn up from the $16.50 low made last Fall. That is a strong support, but the chart does look bleak. My guess is that it will break down through that uptrend line and continue further down over the next several months. To be in a sure uptrend, the price has to lift off the lower Bollinger Band (reverse the direction of that lower band) go up through the simple moving average (cont'd)