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Alliance Resource Partners LP Message Board

  • oohay11693 oohay11693 Sep 18, 2010 10:39 AM Flag

    WOW !! BEEN WITH THIS.... for two years and doubled my money. up $35,000. confused as what to do. most recent earnings spectacular. everyone says divi going up and maybe special divi to be paid because of mlp structure. divi great. what to do. should i take some off the table. confused. help

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    • ARLP has finished a new mine. This has increased revenue substantially. The fixed costs of this corporate structure has not changed. Therefore, much of the increased revenue is falling to the bottom line. Thus, the increase in earnings is not due to a fluke, just due to a new mine. Baring a major mining accident, these new earnings should be there permenantly.

      The MLRP structure dictates that 90% of the earnings goes to distribution. This means that the distribution will go near $6/share. Thus, if we have an 8% distribution, then we should go to $70/share. So, I would keep this for a while.

    • I am in a similar situation. At current valuation the yield is just a little over 5%, but remember it is still basically tax free, and if you sell there are significant tax implications, a lot of them ordinary income.

      There must be a reason for the run up recently. I suspect it is that earnings are going to be great or the divi is going up or maybe a special divi. Any of those outcomes would provide a way to receive income that is tax preferenced (at least for this year). A special divi would cause the stock to drop after the it goes ex but you still get the money.

      My conclusion is to hold on. I think coal has a long term future in this country. The idiots pushing electric cars and hybrids are so blinded by their agenda that they dont realize that when hybrids run on the battery they actually create more greenhouse gas than when they run on petrol because half of electricity in this country is from coal, and that isnt going to change.

      Some ride, though. My MLPs are my best performing securities this year, EPD, ARLP, and TLP. All up 25%+ in a year of a flat market. So much for dividend paying stocks being stodgy.



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