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Alliance Resource Partners LP Message Board

  • acepayday acepayday Aug 8, 2011 5:58 PM Flag

    ARLP and the markets

    I don't think the market is done dropping yet in reaction to the country's credit rating downgrade and won't until everyone figures out just how that will effect their wallets short and long-term.

    Sure ARLP is a great company with a strong balance sheet and long term prospects, but right now the market as a whole is strongly, negatively reacting to panic selling by individual investors who don't know what's going to happen and are trying to save something of their 401Ks, IRAs and retirement nesteggs while they can.

    While I'm certainly no expert, it won't surprise me if we see ARLP drop down to the mid-low 50s before stabilizing, but it's going to be a long time before renewed investor confidence in the financial markets translates into buying pressure and this stock rises back up anywhere near where it was just last Friday. That renewed confidence will be almost completely dependent on how well the Government addresses individual investors concerns. I say individual, because institutional investors are much less likely to "panic react" to anything that happens with the markets and, as we all saw in the early part of this past decade, panic reactions among individual investors "as a whole" can easily move the market downward quickly and significantly in a very short period of time before sanity returns.

    I sold all of my holdings at 79 last week and won't buy back in until I see the bottoming out take place, but I will eventually because it will be a great opportunity to increase my original stack in this great company without additional cost to me! Remember that old saying "those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it!" (paraphrased)...well, I learned my lesson from the market crash of the past decade and will try to gain from that experience this time! I hope you all can do the same.

    Good luck to all!

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    • I'm still holding..But I can't say you didn't make a good move.But institutional investors are also into a panic .

      .."I say individual, because institutional investors are much less likely to "panic react" to anything that happens with the markets"..

      ...Investors are seeking the safety of bank accounts as concern increases that the global economy may relapse into a recession and governments in the U.S. and Europe struggle with a rising debt load. A legislative stalemate last week over the U.S. debt ceiling prompted institutions to pull $103 billion from money funds in the week ended Aug. 2, the most since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008...

    • Here it is, 3 days after my post and ARLP has regained 8+ points that it lost due to panic selling. Granted, this is probably due to the Fed's promise to keep rates low through 2013 but it goes to show how unpredictable the market can be!

      If the Fed hadn't acted quickly, I believe my prediction of the low-mid 50s would have been reached, but I'm very glad they did and I was proven wrong! This just shows why investors should always make their own decisions and never buy or sell on anything anyone else says about the market!

    • I'm in at $32 so i am a long term holder and of course keeping it for distribution. one of my top holdings with big return after oxy. glta

    • good move. i did the same thing the last time it hit 78 79. i bought back in too early.
      the only reason this stock moves like it does is because there isnt enough liquidity or volume. avg 180k shares traded a day is nothing for 2bil market cap. thanks to all the insiders holding 40% the stock. Aug 8 on our big loss day you can see where 20k shares were sold twice. that is over 20% of the shares traded that day. there just werent enough buyers to hold up the price. fortunalty we have a large dividend,to bring in buyers when the price falls below 69. i dont think the price will fall any lower than it already has as long as earning continue the way they have

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