Revenue of $200.3 (vs. $198.3m consensus) – that’s in-line to slightly good.
Gross Margin of 32.4% (vs. 33.04% consensus) – that’s not really good.
EBITDA of $12.7 (vs. $12.46 consensus) – that’s in-line to slightly good.
EPS of -$0.21 (vs. -$0.09 consensus) - I don’t think this is comparable; I have to comb through the release.
SS sales of -1.9% (vs. about -1.5% consensus) – that’s no good, even considering the 90 bps shift from the holidays
So not great…but could have been much worse. EBITDA on track with expectations is a good start and I'm glad to see that…guidance updates on the call will be important.
I'm a holder, I wanted to buy in at multiple points this past year, but didn't commit until last month when it fell with whole foods. Lucky on my part to get in at 5.60. But really, it seems like a pretty straightforward investment. The model just makes sense (good prices on the "staples", but also offers the fancypants items that bring in people who have extra money to spend). The way they messed up the IPO sucks for everyone who bought in early, but it's a great opportunity now.
Little EBITDA growth next year is scary, but if you are investing for a little bit longer term horizon, I don't see how this isn't a very clear buy at these levels. It's a super market that people really like and it only has a handful of stores now. They overpromised and underdelivered, but the growth will be there as they expand, so if the valuation holds steady (or increases) and the margins hold relatively steady (vs. the improvement they are looking for), the stock price has no place to go but up. The path to growth is clear (lots more stores), it's not like they are sitting around trying to invent the iPad - they just have to keep doing what they are doing. In the next three years alone they should increase their store count by 50% (and have committed to do this). How many businesses have a clear path to 50% footprint growth over the next 3 years and only have to open 7 stores to do it?
Increased competition and the potential to bungle new store openings are real risks, so you have to watch out for that...but basically, I see this as a clear buy at these levels. Especially when you consider that they are looking for a new CEO now and given their current situation, you can basically guarantee this guy will have solid expansion experience and can follow a "this is how you grow a supermarket" blueprint.
Looks like there is $6.4m of additional severance and equity comp charges that probably weren't in the street's EPS which would make EPS about $0.15 lower than expectations....but they snuck in "production center start up costs" of $1.3m that probably shouldn't be adjusted out of EBITDA. Either way, they adjust away basically all of their loss to only -$252k...we'll see if people buy that.
How does a chain this size get 6 million in severance charges--unbelievable-16 stores -- what do they get 100k each and free health care for life? who are these people that were let go--I sure hope they were not store level---these clowns will never make money