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TOTAL S.A. Message Board

  • great_stox great_stox Nov 11, 2005 8:33 PM Flag

    Russian Oil on Sale!

    TOT is my portfolio's core holding. Love it! But if you are looking for diversification in your oil holdings, check out TNT. The stock got a little undervalued in recent days and is poised to take off on Mon.

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    • Not sure if any Russian oil is on sale considering what happened with Yukos, but those considering TNT may look at these as well:

      1) LUKOIL - Russia's largest oil company. Pink sheet listing is LUKOY.

      2) Sibir Energy - A London-based company with assets in Russia. A speculative pink sheet stock with potential. Pink sheet listing is SIBYF.

      3) Surgutneftegaz - Company that bought some of the Yukos assets. Pink sheet listing is SGTZY.

    • great_stox-
      <<<< check out TNT.>>>>>>

      I've followed LUKoil professionally for a number of years and finally took the plunge in 2003. It's been a happy experience. U.S. GAAP financials are available (LUKoil has produced GAAP statements since 1998). They've raised their dividend every year since at least 2000 and I like the COP oversight.

      TNT is either the world's cheapest energy company or a rathole. They have reserves that are engineered by Miller & Lents to the tune of 6.173 billion BOEs. They have had difficulty producing audited GAAP financial statements and (FINALLY) rendered the 12/31/03 statement in September, 2005. Audited financial statements for 2004 will not be produced until 2006. The firm does not appear to be levered (6/30/04 equity to assets [Russian accounting] was 56%). There are ANOTHER 2 billion BOEs of possible reserves. Corporate governance is very, very, very murky. There have been some questionable insider transactions that would produce headlines in a Western company. This is unquestionably dodgy stuff and you should be forewarned. All this is available for a price of $6.5 billion. That's about a fifteenth (repeat 1/15th) of what comparable Western energy companies sell for. This is either one of the greatest bargains of all time or it's a colossal ripoff. I wish I knew which. I do own some shares in an amount where I am completely indifferent if the price goes to zero (zed, nada, nothing, 0).

      Thus far (touch wood), it's been a happy experience. I've even received dividends from TNT.

      But, it's definitely not widows and orphans stuff.

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