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Lone Pine Resources Inc. Message Board

  • jimjones62 Sep 20, 2012 12:55 PM Flag

    My Thesis for $9 a share


    4300/bo from evi at going rate of 150k per flowing = 645million
    11000/ bow ng other at 30k per flowing boe= 330 million
    value of narraway, Ojay, Utica and other 800k acres =600 million

    gross 1.545 billion in assets
    net debt 420 million
    nav=1.1 billion approx or $12 a share of net valve, discount heavy, fire sale of .50 on the dollar = $6 a share or 450% higher from here.

    -liquidity at 120million
    -no debt maturing for years
    -new pipeline and take away capacity forecasted to remove discount of WTI to Brent in next 18-24 months
    -forward cure on NG 70% higher over next 24 months
    -70% + of rev coming from liquids
    -half oil hedged above $100 a barrel
    approved to downspace from 6 wells per section to 16 per section in evi to move then double 10 year inventory of drilling locations to over a 1000 location
    -OOIP in evi between 700-1.3 billion barrels of sweet crude at a 30% recovery factor which included water-flood 210million to 400 million barrels recoverable
    Edmonton oil differential now at a $13.5 premium to WTI = we are getting $110+ per barrel netting back over 80$
    -Located in Canada USA largest oil exporter and no risk of a Obama win-fall tax, Canada loves its oil companies
    -Never again will you see a company so cheap with this kind of risk was artistically depressed by the temporary glut in mid-continent oil which brought the differential earlier this year to -21$ a barrel

    target or $8-10

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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