As well managements guidance For second half of 2012 was for 90$ wit with a differential of 12 meaning they only expected to receive 78$ a barrel for oil vs. The 112$ we are getting today. Wit at 99 Edmonton par wit premium of 13.50$ That is a big deal especially when oil accounts for 70% of rev.
At current cap ex and prices we will be fc positive in q3 with 1 rig in evi, I suspect we will add back the second one and ramp up into 2013.....and if we sell off some ng acreage, then add more evi......look out ....this stock came public at the wrong time and forest shouldn't have dividended out the ownership....there is no short interest, no interest, completely unknown which is great for us in at these vast discounts. Time will reprice. The oil is flowing. Liquidity secure with over a 100 million available and that to will expand as banks use higher price decks
I began as a rough neck then ended in a investment banking firm that specialized in the energy patch after finishing my degrees before retiring at 51. There is a lot of money to be made in oil over the next decade.
As a MBA Finance professional, I 100% agree with your analysis. $9/share is very reasonable. My analysis points to $3/share in the next 10 days (assuming we maintain positive momentum and institutions support).