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UDR, Inc. Message Board

  • superincumbent_1 superincumbent_1 Mar 10, 1999 12:46 PM Flag

    Now, lets put this dividend matter to be

    Today's news flash dispelled the rumors of a
    lowered dividend, and also confirmed the bullish forecast
    as perceived by the insiders. I'm glad I came back
    at the market to purchase more at 9 11/16. The price
    was ludicrously low. I won't come back to the market
    with a sell order until this stock gets close to 14,
    or higher. Any long term investor would be wise to
    hang on to their shares. Good luck to all longs, and I
    think your patience will be rewarded.

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    • What's AFFO? I know what FFO is....

    • I subscribe to Realty Stock Review, a pricey Dow
      Jones publication that caters to the REIT investment
      banking world. Its ok for info. I haven't verified their
      estimates myself. I suspect their AFFO estimates are
      compilations from the analysts that follow the stock.

      I appreciate your comments.

    • I think the Reit books by Block are excellent
      resource materials for those interested in this and other
      reits stocks, which I think are ideal for the income
      oriented investor. To clarify to those interested, Block
      has two books on Reits, "The Essential Reit" and
      "Investing in Reits". The latter is more recent, which I
      bought from It is a good $20 investment.

    • There is little doubt AIV is a good value and the
      current Wall Street darling when it comes to apartments.
      Personally, I prefer the 10% dividend from UDR in my IRA
      compared to the approx 6.5% dividend paid by AIV.
      Furthermore, it will likely take many years for AIV's dividend
      return to compare to UDR. From my analysis, the
      consensus opinion of most if not all analysts and from
      management's own projections, the dividend is secure.
      Moreover, UDR's FFO/dividend payout is near a safe historic
      low. Where do you get your AFFO estimates?
      Furthermore, given the choice, I would purchase EQR or
      Archstone (ASN) before AIV.

    • I recently bought the book, and haven't finished
      it yet, but what I have read is excellent. It starts
      out real basic, and progresses into more complicated
      areas. It defines all of the terms, and has some useful
      chapters such as "How to pick out the blue chip reits" and
      "some potential pitfalls". UDR is mentioned several

      I highly recommend it; and by the way, you can get
      it at Barnes and Noble - the old style brick and
      mortar store, and avoid the Amazon freight

      Also, your comment about CSX suggests to me that many
      of the new participants in the stock market really
      do not understand the difference between investing
      and gambling. They will learn the hard

      Good Luck.

    • I am talking off the top of my head, but when the
      FFO numbers came out, I think FFO went down a penny
      or so. This would mean the acquisitions weren't
      accretive. I would really like to know from an insider why
      UDR wound up with the Lehman deal. I'm sure it was
      shopped to AIV and EQR. They must have turned it down.
      Then, UDR wound up with it. The pronouncements from the
      company were that it allowed them to get into the
      California market. When I looked at the property list, most
      of the CA properties were concentrated in Monterey,
      a backwater of the CA economy. You want to be in
      the Bay Area or SoCal. The other big question is how
      much money they will have to put into these properties
      to be competitive. If there is some deferred
      maintenance, the dollars per unit required can be pretty
      astounding for two or three years. These are dollars that
      would otherwise go to pay dividends. The company has
      made any announcements with respect to the need for
      capital improvements. My hunch is that Lehman did
      nothing. But, that's only a hunch.

      Currently the
      dividend is $1.05. 1999 AFFO is predicted to be $1.02.
      This means they have to draw down cash or loans to pay
      the dividend, because the cash flow after capital
      improvements is insufficient. Further, 2000 AFFO is predicted
      to be $1.06, a 3.9% growth rate. This seems to make
      sense to me. Two years of working on the portfolio, and
      maybe then increases in AFFO. Meanwhile, AIV's AFFO is
      predicted to grow 12.2%, the highest of any apartment REIT.
      AIV's dividend is already covered 1.44 to 1 by AFFO. I
      just convinced myself to sell my UDR and by AIV!! (but
      only on an uptick). AIV could buy UDR for stock. I
      would gladly swap my stock for AIV stock at $11.00 or

    • I don't know but there is an opinion out there
      that UDR's acquisitions and dispositions are not
      accretive. Frankly, I am not concerned that much about this
      stock price since I am accumulating it long term for a
      comfortable retirement.

    • There's another REIT book(published by John
      Wiley)- can't think of the author's name, but it's only a
      year or so old, and 'REIT' something is the title. I
      know Barnes and Noble has it (I skimmed it there);
      similar to the Block book.

      BTW, Block does a
      column here:

    • try "The Essential REIT" by Ralph Block -
      available via either at or through the Motley
      Fool mart. (though I mention AMZN only reluctantly
      because of the way the real fools are clamoring after

    • I just want to say how pleasant it is reading the
      posts on this board. For the most part they are
      informative and interesting. I just finished reading the CSX
      board and had to explain how dividend yield played a
      part in whether or not to buy a stock. There are some
      real idiots out there. I can't believe some of them
      really invest with the little bit of knowledge they have
      - this is real money. Don't think anybody who
      invests in REITs need an explanation. Has anyone read any
      good books recently on REITs. I have a book by
      Mullaney that is good, but was looking for more. Thanks
      and God Bless..Frank

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