Today's news flash dispelled the rumors of a
lowered dividend, and also confirmed the bullish forecast
as perceived by the insiders. I'm glad I came back
at the market to purchase more at 9 11/16. The price
was ludicrously low. I won't come back to the market
with a sell order until this stock gets close to 14,
or higher. Any long term investor would be wise to
hang on to their shares. Good luck to all longs, and I
think your patience will be rewarded.
I subscribe to Realty Stock Review, a pricey Dow
Jones publication that caters to the REIT investment
banking world. Its ok for info. I haven't verified their
estimates myself. I suspect their AFFO estimates are
compilations from the analysts that follow the stock.
I appreciate your comments.
I think the Reit books by Block are excellent
resource materials for those interested in this and other
reits stocks, which I think are ideal for the income
oriented investor. To clarify to those interested, Block
has two books on Reits, "The Essential Reit" and
"Investing in Reits". The latter is more recent, which I
bought from Borders.com. It is a good $20 investment.
There is little doubt AIV is a good value and the
current Wall Street darling when it comes to apartments.
Personally, I prefer the 10% dividend from UDR in my IRA
compared to the approx 6.5% dividend paid by AIV.
Furthermore, it will likely take many years for AIV's dividend
return to compare to UDR. From my analysis, the
consensus opinion of most if not all analysts and from
management's own projections, the dividend is secure.
Moreover, UDR's FFO/dividend payout is near a safe historic
low. Where do you get your AFFO estimates?
Furthermore, given the choice, I would purchase EQR or
Archstone (ASN) before AIV.
I recently bought the book, and haven't finished
it yet, but what I have read is excellent. It starts
out real basic, and progresses into more complicated
areas. It defines all of the terms, and has some useful
chapters such as "How to pick out the blue chip reits" and
"some potential pitfalls". UDR is mentioned several
I highly recommend it; and by the way, you can get
it at Barnes and Noble - the old style brick and
mortar store, and avoid the Amazon freight
Also, your comment about CSX suggests to me that many
of the new participants in the stock market really
do not understand the difference between investing
and gambling. They will learn the hard
I am talking off the top of my head, but when the
FFO numbers came out, I think FFO went down a penny
or so. This would mean the acquisitions weren't
accretive. I would really like to know from an insider why
UDR wound up with the Lehman deal. I'm sure it was
shopped to AIV and EQR. They must have turned it down.
Then, UDR wound up with it. The pronouncements from the
company were that it allowed them to get into the
California market. When I looked at the property list, most
of the CA properties were concentrated in Monterey,
a backwater of the CA economy. You want to be in
the Bay Area or SoCal. The other big question is how
much money they will have to put into these properties
to be competitive. If there is some deferred
maintenance, the dollars per unit required can be pretty
astounding for two or three years. These are dollars that
would otherwise go to pay dividends. The company has
made any announcements with respect to the need for
capital improvements. My hunch is that Lehman did
nothing. But, that's only a hunch.
dividend is $1.05. 1999 AFFO is predicted to be $1.02.
This means they have to draw down cash or loans to pay
the dividend, because the cash flow after capital
improvements is insufficient. Further, 2000 AFFO is predicted
to be $1.06, a 3.9% growth rate. This seems to make
sense to me. Two years of working on the portfolio, and
maybe then increases in AFFO. Meanwhile, AIV's AFFO is
predicted to grow 12.2%, the highest of any apartment REIT.
AIV's dividend is already covered 1.44 to 1 by AFFO. I
just convinced myself to sell my UDR and by AIV!! (but
only on an uptick). AIV could buy UDR for stock. I
would gladly swap my stock for AIV stock at $11.00 or
I don't know but there is an opinion out there
that UDR's acquisitions and dispositions are not
accretive. Frankly, I am not concerned that much about this
stock price since I am accumulating it long term for a
There's another REIT book(published by John
Wiley)- can't think of the author's name, but it's only a
year or so old, and 'REIT' something is the title. I
know Barnes and Noble has it (I skimmed it there);
similar to the Block book.
BTW, Block does a
try "The Essential REIT" by Ralph Block -
available via either at Amazon.com or through the Motley
Fool mart. (though I mention AMZN only reluctantly
because of the way the real fools are clamoring after
I just want to say how pleasant it is reading the
posts on this board. For the most part they are
informative and interesting. I just finished reading the CSX
board and had to explain how dividend yield played a
part in whether or not to buy a stock. There are some
real idiots out there. I can't believe some of them
really invest with the little bit of knowledge they have
- this is real money. Don't think anybody who
invests in REITs need an explanation. Has anyone read any
good books recently on REITs. I have a book by
Mullaney that is good, but was looking for more. Thanks
and God Bless..Frank