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Invesco Credit Opportunities Fu Message Board

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  • cvdpro cvdpro Jan 9, 2004 11:34 AM Flag

    Comparing 2 B rated insurance Cos ...

    FPIC is selling 15 times earning.

    VTA could make around 0.80 this year, so $12 is very reasonable target.

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    • Where did you get the EPS estimate of .80?

      • 1 Reply to prophet_david
      • Just my estimate, based on Public information.

        For march quarter, their Standard P&C loss
        $3.226 million dollar

        For Jun quarter, their Standard P&C loss 11.624
        million dollar, but exclude 17 million hail damage in TEXAS, the earning should earn 5.376 millon, improvment of 8.6 million over prior quarter

        For September quarter, earning for P&C was around 6 million, with catastrophe losses around 4.6 million(Normally was around 2.5 million). So they actually improve the results by another 2.5 million dollar over prior quarter.

        Even they have a new 50/quote sharing agreement on Sept 30th, since it is outside TEXAS, so the impact should be minimal. If the premier increase(17% increase for resdential property) and exit the unprofitable state on hold, you should see another 1 to 2 million profit improvment this quarter. So the standard P&C business pretax profit could hit 9 to 10 million this quarter.

        Earning of 0.20 is very reasonable per quarter.My estimate is 0.20-0.25 for this quarter.

        Just my 2 cent, like to hear from other people. I bought over 20K shares, I did spend sometime to go though their 10Q and 10K. I used to work for an insurance company as a actuary.

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