I am not a bear but I can give you a couple of reasons why it could go down. 1)Because everything can always go lower:) 2)Daily volume has quadrupled in last 2 months during which time the shorts have pushed and may continue to push cocoa lower due to a record harvest 3)Any finacial chaos in Europe may push the Euro lower/dollar higher which usually has a negative effect on commodities which are priced in dollars.
That being said, cocoa has put in an interim bottom at $27.23 that you can set a stop at just in case it decides to break to new lows. I will be buying below $28, sell it at $35 with a stop at $26.5
A couple of reasons why it will almost certainly go upn. 1)Because everything can always go HIGHER :-) 2)Political unrest in Nigeria, one of the largest cocoa producers. 3NIB hit its all-time low of $27.23. If I'm a chocolate manufacturer, I'm loading up on this low priced commodity while the price is so attractive.
I have a sell in for $50 because I'm very fond of 100% ROI