Nicely put... Thanks for the insights from your friend. This is simply a waiting game. Great anology on the phase 3 trials.
If this is being looked into as matty says (not doubting you matty), then there will be increased scrutiny on future such instances. Any future such occurances should be muted due to the increased attention level. I am looking at it as a Chardan/ BofA type event. Both analysts gone from their jobs within a month of each other after 18 months of games.
The last conference call firmly cemented the word when and took the word if out of play.
Morning Hasch, you know I like these discussions. BTW, 2016 EPS estimates increased last night. I would prefer to look at 2017... As that reflects higher though not complete volumes of coming to market.
Analyst 2017 Revenue estimate
GP at 25%
2015 SG&A/ other exp plus 5% to take into account the age of the data
2017 Rev $979,840
2015 Non CGS exp $137,943
Add 5% Increase $6,897
2017 Non CGS $144,840
Net Income 100,120
Forward PE Multiple 25
Y/E 2016 SP $14.55
Not missing it at all. No, the take down was not justified.. Still believe this should trade at a forward PE of 20-30... HIMX just started demonstrating limited growth. Hmmm Lookee lookee, the estimates for CY2016 (.38) and 2017 (.50) were just raised last night.. Until the growth is seen in an earnings report that justifies the pe , this will be in a trading range.
Why? this is an emerging market. Yes HIMX will be a larger player in the market. 2017 Will still be in limited (though much larger than 2016) volumes. The estimate for 2017 already justifies a $10 price tag at a value/div PE of 20. Problem is the markets will punish the short term for the quarterly #'s and they can make a killing off the type of action seen yesterday.
Retail needs to sit back and relax for the next 18 months.
Expect more of the same the next CC. There is not a fundamental change. You are correct in using the forward P/e. Companies expecting growth are typically measured against the forward rather than TTM earnings,
Agree with your short term expectations and happy with that... Still a 25-35% increase over the TTM in Share price...
Porsyche, .40 per year will should be easily attainable. Himx should eclipse or come close to it this year if product rollouts continue on schedule. As we have seen, that is a big if.
Back in Oct, Halolens content was estimated at $135 per unit by BofA. During the November CC Wu almost chuckled as he noted the estimates for device content by analysts is well below what HIMX saw as the actual...
Did a quick back of the envelope then:
As the BofA report suggested. Let's break that down.
unit est content $$ $135
25% Gross Profit $67,500,000
Added G&A/Other $(7,500,000)
Net to bottom line $60,000,000
Shares outstanding 172,000,000
Contribution in the 1st year for current max production of Hololens content only should be approx. .35/year... This is incremental business. That is simply 1 product.
Long story short, this is a long story.. As we have seen, the timing tends to shift to the right, although each shift is getting smaller.
So the 8.62 low yesterday did not come close enough to your 8.50 mark to change your take.
Again, appreciate what you add to the board.
FSUS, They came in at their mid point on revenue. Guidance was for -1% to +4% sequential revenue. They came in at +1.3%.
What the company says and the consensus estimate are 2 different animals.
Norm, deeper than that IMO. While analyst estimates were for some growth in Q2, I do think the prevailing attitude for the large houses was an expectation of faster growth than forecasted..... Short term, they viewed it as stagnant money.