you might have been correct when you write "if any ETE pays." time will tell soon ....... I believe ETE wins this.
dw_home, normally I might agree with you that the big boys are setting us up. However, this court is an open forum and the actual trial is reliably available to all. I think you might be on the wrong side of this deal. Go ETE longs!
It could also go the other way against Williams. Williams is on the line for a $1.48 billion break up fee if the transaction does not close. And both ETE and Williams jointly chose and agreed upon the law firm together. It ain't over till is over ......... and the judge rules.
Need to bump this to the top ..... the Trolls and Spamsters have found this board. So, blue sky ........ when you gonna get the Porsche? It has been 2+ weeks since you said you are buying it. Good luck longs!
What is happening to natural gas prices since February is due to the lower rigs=falling production AND a hot summer is predicted. Over the past few years MANY utilities have converted from coal (think Obama & EPA & cost) to natural gas fired plants to generate electricity. Natural gas is not just a "winter" thing anymore. Long ETE.
Actually, it is the opposite ..... if the WMB deals goes through, there is a bug pull back. The recent run is due largely to the higher likelihood of the merger falling apart and ETE not having to take on an additional $6Bn in debt with a variety of other factors including increasing commodity prices. Good luck longs!
Hers another 1 cent ...... very recently announced that coal consumption dropped 36% year over year and that natural gas is taking its place as a much cleaner fuel for electricity generation. As many companies switch over, it drives up demand. Good luck longs.
90+% of Targa's business is gas related and not oil. Production of NG is also showing signs of production declines and the price of NG is up nicely. With only about 70% of Targa's revenue from fixed fees (many competitors are 80-90% fixed fees), Targa takes on more downside risk but also enjoys a large upside when prices increase. I believe that is what is happening here ...... that is my $0.03 worth. Good luck longs!
Read access to equity capital markets is a good thing and largely the reason in a run-up from the low 20's to where the price is today. Albeit the additional equity is very expensive in terms of both dividend yield and warrants (which will likely dilute common share holders). With a decent commodity price recovery ($70-80 oil and $3.25 gas) within the next 2+ years, the true longs should see a 2-4 bagger (I need a 2 just to get back to even) plus some nice dividends along the way. Good luck longs ........ wish for slightly higher commodity prices.
If you believe that a retail investor has the pull to defeat this you are silly. The institutional investors control the outcome. All in all, this will work out for everyone if we get a recovery in natural gas/oil prices during 2016.
I am not a tax guru but believe you need to revisit what the merger means. The cost basis will be adjusted downward based on the dividend portion that was considered a return on capital and not return of capital for IRS purposes. Then, the conversion factor will be applied at current market prices to determine both the sale price for taxable purposes and your new cost basis for the TGRP shares (which you now have to hold 1-year for long term capital gain treatment. Since I bought all my NGLS ranging from $35-40 I will reflect a significant loss carry forward. Remember they are leaving the MLP structure (treated differently than C-shares) for C-shares.
That NGLS is announcing earnings about 30 days later than they normally do after quarter-end? It could mean something good or bad. Not sure what to make of it.
Better go back and check the amount. This is simply a shelf registration subject to market. The amount has not yet been determined. $100 million is a common figure used until they gauge market sentiment and pricing. I would expect this to be in the $400-600MM range. Go back and look at GoDaddy ...... they did the same thing.
At the Sept 9-10 Barclays presentation they indicated a 1:1 dividend coverage ratio. I doubt they will cut it Q3 (although it might get cut later). Giving incorrect guidance this close to earnings would cause legal issues.
Oil & Gas production is not yet declining nationwide. The GROWTH in O&G production is declining though. Domestic production remains at 30 year highs from existing drilled wells.
Some clients are going bankrupt but the properties are being bought by other producers that continue the operations. When one operator does not have the financial ability to weather the storm, another one steps in and takes over.
The new $1Bn noted carries an interest rate of 6.25% which, when fully funded, increases borrowing costs by $62.5MM and not $300MM. Plus, initially, the new note will be sued to pay down some of the RLOC so that will actually reduce some borrowing costs. You may be right when debt begins to mature in Feb 2018 that cost will go way up.
There are already ratings downgrades. They key here is for Oil to get to +- $60 and Gas +- $3.00 and EBITDA will stabilize & improve decently.
NGLS has predicted 4-7% growth in distributions. TRGP well north of that. But, while I don't thing dividends are in imminent danger of being cut (ask me again in 6-12 months if commodity prices don't improve) I would agree they will likely flatten out and little to no growth in distributions will occur.
Spreads - Frac spreads increased very nicely for the 7th week in a row.
The glass is half empty ...... but with increased pricing, the glass can be refilled to the top.
Huge debt - No doubt about this. My biggest single concern. But coming due all out in the long term so no immediate liquidity issues. First debt due is a whopping $1.1Bn note in February of 2018. The "new normal" on commodity prices should appear in the next 6 months based on past declines. Need above $60 oil and $3.25 gas. We are in gravy is we get to $70-75 oil and $3.50 gas. Targa will have the CF to support refinancing.
Fractionation spread - definitely down from last year. But six-week trend is positive. Who knows for sure? CF has already been cut well before now. Long term coverage of dividends is now 1.0 down from 1.4-1.5x.
Marcellus - Targa has no notable infrastructure in this area. Just some run down to their fractionation plants in Texas.
Lower volumes - Not so, just look at the strong run up in volumes largely due to the Atlas acquisition. Much higher volumes but at much lower prices. Williston is steady and will be for next couple of years but not looking for much growth in this area.
Capacity overbuilt - We disagree on this. Still opportunities in the right places for more. The $1Bn in debt is for 2016 expansions and to build out in conjunction with the Atlas acquisition.
Eagle Ford - It is a mess for further exploration at these prices. Simply not economical to build out more production but current wells are doing fine. But NGLS only has a single gas plant down there so not much exposure. they also have a minimal amount of gas gathering lines in Eagle Ford.
Exports - This should be a HUGE boost to the company in the intermediate and longer term.
So yes, they have their challenges. Most of it is cured magically by a boost in commodity prices.
Just my opinion but the company is worth well North of $50 per share, especially after the Atlas acquisition. Time will tell.
I am thinking this will become a target in 2016 so I am definitely thinking a bit longer term. Plus, some of my holdings in NGLS are a few months shy of that magical 1-year capital gains rule so am in no hurry. We need the O&G markets to find the "new normal" whatever hat might be.. My guess is $70-75 oil and $3.25-3.50 gas by the end of 2016.
One thing is for sure ......... still going to need to move this stuff through the pipelines, store it in terminals, processes it for sale, and coming soon ........ increase exports to foreign markets.
I believe $80 per unit is doable. $100 might be a stretch!
Good luck longs!
NGLS is going to make us true longs a LOT of money. The Atlas acquisition already is showing signs of tremendous synergies and provides for significant and expansion and growth. I am a little leary of the extra $1Bn of debt the company took on but when we get $60-65 oil and gas north of $3.00 it will be no worry. Profits will come back up and distributions will increase, Joe Bob know how to run this company and once the oil market stabilizes (usually 12-15 months after a shake up ...... Thanksgiving is the 12 month period) we might see some other companies attempt to take over NGLS in the $80-100 range.
And we enjoy a nice 1:1 dividend LONG TERM coverage ratio which yields me about 9% at my entry points. NGLS is going to pay for the home we are going to build in Lakeway!
KEEPING THE LONG TERM FAITH IN NGLS!