why aren't you pumping so you can short from a higher level?
It shoes you have no idea what runs the stock market. People on this board are fleas on an elephant. We don't affect anything. We're just along for the ride.
Start in the real world, not fantasy land. 40,000 tests a quarter yields a lost of 50m a quarter. Historical fact. You're going to hear it again on July 28. And q3 too.
Hmmm, so they're going to increase their business 50% at some point? That's your starting point? That's all they have to do? Ok. Let's start with that. They increase their tests to 60,000 a quarter Even if their expenses didn't increase, they'd still lose 30m a quarter. And be out of business within a year.
What you have to assume for success is that business increases 300% while expenses go down. Good plan--for every company in the world.
The earning potential seems to be a guarantee to grow.
Grow to what when? They did 40,000 tests in q1 at an average of $370 a test for a a loss of about 60m. They could increase their testing by 50%, 100%, even 150%, and they'd still lose an absolute ton of money.
The numbers just don't run.
My broker finally was able to borrow some more shares.
Just shorted another 2000 at 12.75.
It's called reality. The balloon will pop. This ain't no Tesla.
Lab in Madison has capacity for 1million tests per year with potential revenue of $500/test or $500 million.
Expenses of $200 million/year, $50mil/ quarter.
What the? Somebody is math challenged.
EXAS did 40,000 test in q1 at an average price of $370 and lost what 60 million?
Not doing much is it? If it cross 29, I'll get in.
right now, I'm busy shorting GPS---oooh Old Navy did 2% more in June, so the stock goes through the roof!
Heed your own words:
"What about a market crash, or race war, or a million other unforeseen events or turns that could and would quickly wipe out our modest 'recovery in progress'. Seriously, I am having trouble with this nagging feeling that to stay complacent here and not consider vulnerability and consequence is folly." With what you describe, you'd have to live in a bubble with NO risk in any significant area of national/international life. Such a bubble/planet does not exists ... as far as I know. "
And that's if EXAS had the pipeline and the revenue coming in. This thing hasn't even gotten off the ground yet and may never. You're looking at a 100m loss in the next 2 quarter minimum. Then, and only then, does the turn around potentially start. It could be years if ever. Lack of cash, Technology changing, competition entering the market, etc. etc. etc. as you say. It's why you don't give a company with next to nothing a 1.2b market cap.. Not until it earns it.
The pettiness and gutter level anger of the bag holding longs here is very entertaining.
It's not magic, although it may seem like magic to a simpleton. Putting a stop loss in when you're up 10% in 4 hours isn't rocket science it's just common sense.
your numbers alcoholic are so far off its not even funny..
Outright lie. My numbers are taken from their public disclosures. Income less than 50 million. Expenses over 100 million, losses 50 million a year. It is what it is. July 28, you'll hear more of the same. Projection for next quarter, more of the same.
Your numbers? Well, you don't have any. Therein lies the scary part.
Why are you in something you do no care about?
Of course I care about it. What you want is a cheerleading squad. See, that ended in high school. This is the big boy league and you are just going to have to put on your big boy pants and hear the negatives of your company. It's called the free market. You can make money going up or coming down, as long as you're smart about it.
But the way you come across, you're just another bag holder buying on the news.
Tick tock till July 26th.
What the? Is that supposed to be scary or something? You think they turned the corner and are going to pr a surprise earnings? Get real.
You're half right. I was in big with SZYM but didn't use any higher math or say it should be 50. Lost my #$%$ on that stock too. The CEO Wolfson was an outright liar-- nNo imminent revenue stream. Got sued in a cl#$%$ action. Forced to step down. Shamed forever.
It's now called TVIA. and it's actually a great comparison to EXAS. TVIA has probably 100 times more potential than EXAS. It has 100m in cash, 40m annual revenue and one 200m dollar contact with Unilver going forward. It makes a game changer product algae that can be used in just about everything. Probably even has some medical applications. TVIA has a market cap of 200m. EXAS 1.2b. Go figure.
JUNO---a company that really is on the verge of saving the world. So three people died after receiving the fludarabine in addition to JCAR015. Big deal. They were dead anyway without the treatment. Live and learn. It's called the scientific method. Just stop with those chemotherapies and continue on with the trial. It's that simple.
CAR-T therapy is looking like it's going to revolutionize how doctors treat relapsing and recurring B-cell cancers and JUNO is right there on the the front line. JUNO is something to get excited about. It has a billion in cash and its market cap is only 2.5 that of EXAS. Go figure.
Reality check, EXAS longs. JUNO is a real BIO stock with exciting potential.
As soon as the carnage subsides, I'll probably go long 25,000 shares of JUNO. Unfortunately, it won't be for the long term but rather for the $5 rebound off this unfortunate news.
exas will have fewer expenses and more revenue in each of the next few quarters and will ultimately be extremely profitable.
Perfect case in point. A trash talking long who doesn't have a clue about actual real world numbers but spouts off fairy tale conclusions anyway. And then tries to rub something in that hasn't even happened yet.
Poster Boy of a bag holder.
We will see in a couple of years.
Agreed. Of course that's the answer.
So tell you long friends to stop with the absurd trash talking now. For now, it's scary and ugly for this company. They are losing 4 times what they gross. It can't continue. Come end of this month they are going to report that they just lost another 50-60 million. There will only be 150m left before bankruptcy. 3 quarters of life after July.
That is why the higher this goes the more the shorts are going to pile on.
But after that, assuming that insurance kicks in and there aren't any issues with the test, it should show fantastic growth. It has no real competition with a huge market worldwide.
This is the disconnect right here. Longs who have no idea what they are talking about bank on this shallow level thinking and trash talking.
Ok genius, what exactly is it that you think they are going to do? They're grossing 15m a quarter right now so what exactly is the number you think they're headed to in terms of growth? Hint: The company's pie in the sky number is 30m. They publicly disclosed that they think within 2 years they can hit 30m gross. You know what 30m gross gets them? Still a huge net loss. The numbers you have to be talking about are 1000% increase or more in business. That's all the company has to do to become huge and make your day, increase their business by 1000%. Then, you'll be dead on in your predictions.
That's right, reality check.
And how many are going to switch to an inferior test? And how long will it take Doctors to advise this inferior test? And how long will it take to ramp up enough sales to break even and how much cash does EXAS have left to get there?
Be realistic here. You're looking at 5 years minimum. In the meantime, you're up against innovation and competition from every direction. It's a huge uphill battle.
You picked the wrong stock for your lottery game - research would have helped.
Not even possible for me to lose money. I shorted 15 thousand shares over 11 and watched it go down to the high 9s in one day before I got stopped out at just over 10. Easy 12k profit. Then I got bored waiting for it to get to the high 11s again and shorted at just over 11 because it didn't look like it was going anywhere. But there was hardly any stock to short so I only got 2,000 shares. And now that it's in the 12s I can't even average up because there still is no stock to short. My broker let me pick up a lousy 600 shares at 12.75 and they were sold out again.
And that's what I keep telling you idjits. You can't win. The higher this goes, the more the shorts are going to pile on. Right now there are 5 million shares of long term shareholders selling every single day to you bag holders. They own the shares and they want out at this price. It's a no brainer.
In the meantime, I'm short 15,000 shares of GPS. Same kind of goofy story as EXAS. The GAP reports a 2% increase in June sales so the entire company bumps up 500m. Does that make any sense? We don't even know if the 2% was because they sold everything at a huge loss.
You people buy on the news. I sell after the run up on the news. I win about 70% of the time.
But eventually they will break even and then they will start making huge profits and if you haven't covered by the you will be in big trouble.
Based on what? All conclusion and no analysis gets you and F in class.
All you do is to keep spouting the same two facts from the last 10Q as if things will stay that way forever.
Ya, such unimportant, near irreleant facts---gross revenue and net loss. Coming up later this month.