I agree RIO is worth watching here, but I'd like to see better technicals first, better market. I could be wrong, but I think some big money sees deflationary dynamics picking up steam into the fall.
continued manipulation ? Thanks to Doy-tcha Bunk their big clients can unload into peak earnings...just in time before the slowdown hits. Will buyers take enough stock from manipulators to keep prices from crashing ? For how much longer ? I think PCLN is in the 9th inning and a breakdown is imminent
popular brand names but low margin businesses...no pricing power. slow growth vulnerable to consumer slowdown. loaded up on debt at high prices to make acquisitions. EPS manipulation can go on for how long ? Vulnerable to surprises.
moneyonomics, yes I see the sch of LT debt maturities in the 10K. I see that most of the LT debt matures many years out...to match the revenues from the assets which will be received over many years...that probably made a lot of sense before 2009 when most of these loans were made. Only about 500M matures in 2013 and can be rolled over at current low rates. If they hedged the interest rate risk at the time the loans were made to lock in their cost of capital at the original rates, they should benefit as rates rise...it all depends on how the LT loans are hedged. For example, they"ll pay 7.125% on the notes due in 2020 regardless of what happens to interest rates, but they (might have) incurred a hedging loss since 2009 (hypothetically assume it's a 2009 origination) which will be covered as rates tick back up.
agree it doesn't pay to short stocks of good companies in an uptrend...this is one to watch for signs of a slowdown in spending...but not one to be short
Interesting stock. Do you happen to know the same store sales growth by sector ? Also, I'd be interested to see US & Europe Sales vs Sales to Latin America..Thx
If the Fed, BOJ & UK Central Banks wanted to bid up their countries' sovereign debt beyond the point where the purchaser will receive back their purchase price in principal and interest over the term of the note...i.e negative nominal yields...sellers US, UK and Japanese sovereign debt could not find enough sovereign debt of other countries with positive yields to buy...which might make it possible for the ECB to issue Euroland bonds at reasonable rates. Europe has to establish confidence with fundamental changes - including Europe wide bonds as Soros suggests - before the crisis can end
Yes, but at a slower rate with no longer term buying commitment. Improving employment and higher inflation should keep the Fed from stepping up buying. The band aid on Euroland should keep scared money out of Treasuries - so the big buying should at least slow, which will change the momentum at the margin, and could move rates up to 4% before the Fed steps in.
This is highly manipulated stock - 49M shares O/S owned by growth mutual funds. LTRO relief rally will soon give way to pricing in a travel slowdown. There's way too much event risk (oil price shock) in this momo pig in this environment
<<But theory is often wrong in this casino>>
The stock market is a casino in the short term, no doubt...but not the Gov't bond market. Look at the Fed mandates and ask what could be changing ?
<<Once they stop watch out...>>
They'll stop manipulation when they think it's in their best interest to stop - the policy statement is not a contract that cannot be broken without consequences. If employment improves and inflation picks up, Fed will stop easing quickly. When will that happen ? Could be sooner than you think
Agree that Europe will get worse before it gets better, but it won't be a straight course down for the Euro. I don't think it's back to the wall time yet for Euroland. They still have more bullets...it's a fiat world after all...
yield spreads are not normal, so you shouldn't think of it as loaning $$ to US Govt for 30 years. It's really just a loan to Obama for as long as it takes to click "sell"
Growth at bookings.com is slowing down from last few qtrs torrid growth levels - it was a great run, but it's coming to an end. PIIGS contagion fears and US slowdown are the macro backdrop to a broad market selloff before QE-3 sets sail sometime in 2012. I think those are the most important company and market facts to read ?
This kind of one day rally...up 6% in a momo stock in reverse is very similar to the Techs action on the way down in 2000. I know, I was there - check my ID.